Baseball Handbook beta

TOR PHI 2024-05-08 12:05 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
TOR	001 003 010	5	14	12	0
PHI	001 000 101	3	10	7	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
TOR	-1.14	2.44	Chris Bassitt (R)	36.3	0.12
PHI	0.63	1.27	Aaron Nola (R)	43.3	0.4

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
TOR	0.417	0.410	144	144	0.408 - 0.417	0.404
PHI	0.643	0.630	-170	59	0.621 - 0.643	0.596

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
TOR0.04		Aaron Nola
	-	0.4	=	0
		Relief PHI
	-	0.08	=	0
PHI1.78		Chris Bassitt
	-	0.12	=	2
		Relief TOR
	-	0	=	2

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
TOR	17	20	-23.6	-14.4	-6.0	6.2
PHI	26	12	24.9	19.6	7.5	3.1

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
TOR	19	18	-13.1%	6.8%	37
PHI	22	16	14.3%	-31.3%	38

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
12:05 details	TOR	0.410	0.448	0.404	0.405	109.3	98.6	98.8
	PHI	0.630	0.552	0.596	0.595	87.8	94.8	94.6

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	TOR	-0.2	-1.35	-0.54	-0.17	-2.25
HOME	PHI	2.79	0.85	0.68	1.84	0.35