Baseball Handbook beta

SEA MIN 2024-05-08 18:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
SEA	000 100 200	3	14	10	0
MIN	210 100 02	6	20	7	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
SEA	0.20	2.60	George Kirby (R)	38.3	1.12
MIN	-0.61	-0.08	Chris Paddack (R)	32.0	-0.37

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
SEA	0.524	0.522	-109	92	0.519 - 0.524	0.517
MIN	0.524	0.519	-108	93	0.519 - 0.524	0.483

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
SEA-0.02		Chris Paddack
	-	-0.37	=	0
		Relief MIN
	-	0.1	=	0
MIN-0.29		George Kirby
	-	1.12	=	-1
		Relief SEA
	-	0.85	=	-1

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
SEA	20	17	-23.9	33.1	2.8	0.5
MIN	21	15	6.1	6.1	1.8	3.1

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
SEA	19	18	2.3%	-8.9%	37
MIN	19	17	3.5%	-16.4%	36

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
18:40 details	SEA	0.522	0.546	0.517	0.517	104.8	99.3	99.3
	MIN	0.519	0.454	0.483	0.483	87.6	93.2	93.2

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	SEA	0.2	0.58	0.24	0.7	0.33
HOME	MIN	0.31	0.12	-0.65	-0.07	0.67