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» Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:26:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}}}}s:4:\"item\";a:20:{i:0;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:85:\"\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n				\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n\n		\n		\n				\n			\n		\n	\n		\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n	\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:6:{s:0:\"\";a:7:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:53:\"Marco Rubio: Overrated, Underrated Or Properly Rated?\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:87:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-overrated-underrated-or-properly-rated/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:95:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-overrated-underrated-or-properly-rated/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Tue, 22 Dec 2015 20:43:26 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:9:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13:\"2016 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Primary\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:7;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Slack Chat\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:8;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Ted Cruz\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=99148\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:525:\"For this week&#8217;s 2016 Slack Chat, we check back in on Marco Rubio&#8217;s campaign. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): We jumped on the Marco Rubio bandwagon a while ago, and there were a few weeks when the conventional wisdom seemed to hold that Rubio was the [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=99148&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:22675:\"<p>For this week&#8217;s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/slack-chat/\">2016 Slack Chat</a>, we check back in on Marco Rubio&#8217;s campaign. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>micah</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, politics editor): We jumped on the Marco Rubio bandwagon <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-announcement-2016/\">a while ago</a>, and there were a few weeks when the conventional wisdom <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-versus-marco-rubio-is-a-long-way-off/\">seemed to hold</a> that Rubio was the front-runner. But he never got much of a bump in the polls. He got <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-establishment-inches-toward-marco-rubio/\">some endorsements</a> but never more than a trickle. And now the narrative has <a href=\"http://gawker.com/marco-rubio-is-losing-1749181917\">flipped</a> &#8212; at least a little &#8212; and people are <a href=\"http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/12/why-isnt-marco-rubio-winning-5-theories.html\">wondering</a> why Rubio isn’t doing better. So, our question for today is: Marco Rubio &#8212; overrated, underrated, properly rated?</p><p><b>natesilver</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, editor in chief): He’s either underrated now or was overrated before, because the conventional wisdom has changed a lot more than the underlying facts of the case.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/clare-malone/\">Clare Malone</a>, senior political writer): If we are going with my grandmother’s metric of whoever is the best-looking being the best qualified for president, then Rubio, who currently has the best chance of winning according to <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html\">betting markets</a>, is properly rated. But otherwise, I think he’s overrated. He has <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/\">endorsements</a>, but I think that his “<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubios-lousy-ground-game-in-iowa-will-probably-cost-him-votes/\">national</a>” primary campaign tactic might not be panning out as expected.</p><p><b>harry</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\">Harry Enten</a>, senior political writer): Well, let’s look at the facts: Rubio still has fantastic favorable ratings. The best in the field. The problem is that he hasn’t translated those favorable ratings into horse-race numbers. But as <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-suggest-trump-will-win-between-8-percent-and-64-percent-of-the-vote/\">I’ve written</a>, the horse-race numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t necessarily telling at this point. Here’s a chart from the piece:</p><figure id=\"attachment_97895\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-97895\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/enten-pollsarenotpredictive-3.png?w=575\" alt=\"enten-pollsarenotpredictive-3\"   /></figure><p>We played “<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-trump-cruz-or-rubio-have-the-best-pre-debate-chance/\">buy/sell/hold</a>” a few weeks ago, and I had Rubio as the favorite with somewhere around a 35 percent chance of winning the nomination. I see no reason to change my mind on this. Although, I will say that Ted Cruz may be higher than he once was, but Rubio is no lower.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Clare’s point about Rubio’s lack of a ground game is interesting. That storyline seemed to drive a lot of the negative coverage Rubio received recently.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: For sure. I’ve been a Rubio-bull too, and the reports about his ground game concern me.</p><p><b>harry</b>: (Thank goodness we are all in the same room typing to each other instead of speaking. We are healthy people.)</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I think writing is good for the soul, Harry.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: At the same time, a lot of this is glass-half-full versus glass-half-empty stuff. For instance, it seems like he has <a href=\"http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428823/marco-rubio-nevada-caucuses-ted-cruz\">a pretty good ground game</a> in Nevada. There’s not a lot of focus on that now because the narrative on Rubio has turned negative.</p><p><b>micah</b>: What is Rubio’s strategy?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: His strategy is being the top establishment-approved choice remaining after the first few states vote. Or maybe that’s a goal, more than a strategy.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: His theory is that there’s not a lot of point to wasting resources on campaign offices, etc. &#8212; the traditional apparatus, basically. Rubio’s team thinks they should be investing their money in TV ads/radio, etc. They’re also all about that national media vs. kowtowing to the locals &#8212; the idea being that more people are likely to see the senator on “Fox and Friends” than in a Des Moines diner.</p><p>The problem with that being, if I am to voice the detractors’ views, that a lot of people in the early states are, say, at work and not watching TV when he’s doing Fox interviews and so the exposure might not be as great as he thinks. And if he’s courting the national media, and Iowa and New Hampshire are primaries that are greatly affected by media spin, it might adversely affect his campaign.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: My question is how much of this is expectations management by the Rubio campaign.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I feel like a lot of this anti-Rubio stuff is because he hasn’t broken out in the polls, but he’s still at 10 percent or greater everywhere. The leader in New Hampshire is Donald Trump, who hasn’t moved at all over the last four months. Given the increasingly low expectations at this point, it’s not difficult to see Rubio winning New Hampshire by a percentage point or two and taking off.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: So, are we all being a little bit ninny-ish, thinking that New Hampshire and Iowa really matter that much?</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement(\'audio\');</script><![endif]--><audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-99148-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%; visibility: hidden;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"\" src=\"http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2644974/whatsthepoint_2015-12-22-081014.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138&#038;_=1\" /><a href=\"http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2644974/whatsthepoint_2015-12-22-081014.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138\">http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2644974/whatsthepoint_2015-12-22-081014.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138</a></audio><p><em>We&#8217;re piloting our election podcast. The proper show will launch in January, before the Iowa caucus, but you can find our pilots in the feed for <a href=\"http://espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=13131752\">What&#8217;s The Point</a>.</em></p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>micah</b>: Actually, according to HuffPost Pollster, Rubio is the top establishment candidate right now in <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-republican-primary\">Iowa</a>, <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-caucus\">New Hampshire</a> AND <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-south-carolina-presidential-republican-primary\">South Carolina</a> &#8212; Rubio is underrated!</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, New Hampshire is one pivot point here. You have several establishment candidates at about 10 percent of the vote. Reminds me of Iowa four years ago when Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry all stuck at like 10 percent in Iowa and then Santorum broke out. Similarly, someone from the Rubio/Chris Christie/Jeb Bush/John Kasich group is likely to break out in New Hampshire eventually.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Nate, don’t be such a ninnyhammer.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Right. This is a first-past-the-post primary. Eventually, there tends to be a coalescing of the vote around a particular candidate.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: While I might be spouting the conventional wisdom in this chat, I am intro-ing antique words that Micah likes.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: The fundamental reason we’ve been bullish on Rubio, though, has been by a sort of process of elimination. And that really hasn’t changed.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: So, is Christie Rubio’s biggest competition in New Hampshire?</p><p><b>micah</b>: Cue Harry’s pro-Christie stump speech &#8230;</p><p><b>harry</b>: It could be Cruz.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: You missed your cue. Play for the crowd, Harry!</p><p><b>harry</b>: If Cruz won in Iowa, he could win in New Hampshire. Of course, I haven’t really seen a lot of proof that Cruz has expanded beyond his very conservative/evangelical Christian base.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Trump would be a disastrous nominee for the Republican Party on every level. Cruz wouldn’t be as bad, but (i) he’d still probably cost Republicans a few percentage points in November by being “too” conservative, and (ii) he isn’t well-liked by his colleagues. The point is that the stakes are really high and the establishment is not just going to give up the fight. It might lose the fight, but it won’t cease fighting.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I play for no crowd.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Nate, that to me is the key question for how you rate Rubio’s chances …</p><p>If you put Cruz firmly in the anti-establishment category and you think the party will do all it can to prevent a Cruz nomination, then Rubio looks to be in a really solid position.</p><p>But if you think Trump might scare the establishment into making peace with Cruz, then Rubio’s position doesn’t seem that great to me.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah. I realize some of the Rubio case seems a little underwear-gnomish. He seems like a rational nominee for the Republican Party &#8212; but we’re not sure how he’ll get there exactly? At the same time, it might be a little early to focus on specific scenarios. At this point 12 years ago, nobody would have expected John Kerry to break out in New Hampshire, for example.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Let me play a little pro-Rubio here, if I can. The belief that Trump is a favorite or a real threat to the nomination is largely built on what have been fairly impressive national numbers coming out. Yet when you look at the data from Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump’s numbers are fine, but not all that amazing. So why should the party actors settle on Cruz?</p><p><b>micah</b>: That’s a fair point.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: At this point, I think there’s more chance of Cruz winning in a runaway-freight-train scenario than Trump. The recent <a href=\"http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b85d13974aeb4901bd68916b963cea3c.pdf\">Emerson College poll</a> had Cruz at 41 percent nationally in a race without Trump and Ben Carson &#8212; and while we don’t expect those candidates to disappear instantly, they’re the two whose numbers will probably suffer the most if they don’t win Iowa.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Well, it depends on how much there is a new normal in this election, right? How much has the Trump effect trickled down to make even really conservative guys like Cruz seem like relatively mainstream dudes? I think there’s perhaps a real feeling of radicalism in the Republican base that’s been percolating and might play hugely in this election.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Yeah, and how powerful a force that is remains a big open question. Here’s another: Does Rubio NEED to win in New Hampshire?</p><p><b>harry</b>: NO. But he needs to be very competitive there.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: He needs to be the top establishment candidate standing. He might also need Cruz to <i>not</i> win New Hampshire. Cruz sweeping Iowa and New Hampshire &#8212; and presumably then South Carolina &#8212; would make him a real front-runner, obviously. But even so, the establishment isn’t likely to concede the race so easily. And the media will want a long, competitive contest too.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: So Rubio coming in third would never be OK for him? (Trump, Cruz finishing ahead in this scenario.) He needs to beat one of those guys?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Let me answer that obliquely with one analogy I’ve been thinking about lately, which is sort of a soft version of the “<a href=\"http://www.amazon.com/The-Party-Decides-Presidential-Nominations/dp/0226112373\">Party Decides</a>” theory. Imagine that the party establishment is the referee in a boxing match. It has one boxer it would prefer to see win. But it can’t rig the match once it’s underway. However, it can choose when to call the fight. So if its preferred boxer &#8212; let’s call him Red &#8212; is winning early, it can call the fight after a couple of rounds. But if he’s losing, they can let the fight keep going and hope he prevails on the basis of his stamina. And if all else fails, they can hope he’ll deliver a desperate knockout blow at the end.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>:</p><figure id=\"attachment_99154\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-99154\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/1133-1922_w.jpg?w=575\" alt=\"1133.1922_w\"   /></figure><p><b>natesilver</b>: This boxer is not guaranteed to win by any means. He’s screwed if his opponent leads wire to wire, but he’s getting a lot of second and third chances when his opponent might not. And that makes his overall odds pretty good. He just has to lead at <i>any</i> point and the refs can call the match.</p><p>I’m getting sort of abstract here, but I’ve been thinking a lot about what sort of power the party establishment does and does not have. And a lot of it is having some persuasive power to set the rules of engagement and strategically encourage winnowing of the field. Why has no Republican won the nomination before without winning Iowa or New Hampshire? Because in every past nomination race, a candidate who was broadly acceptable to Republican Party elites won at least one of those states. We don’t have any examples really on what happens when an insurgent wins both states.</p><p><b>micah</b>: But now we’re talking about two different questions: Can the establishment prevent an insurgent nominee? And, if so, will the establishment-approved substitute be Rubio?</p><p>It’s still not clear to me that &#8212; even if the establishment can prevent a Trump or Cruz nomination &#8212; Rubio will be the beneficiary, even if that’s the modal scenario.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I think (?) we can all agree that Rubio is in trouble if he falls behind Christie or Bush in the establishment pecking order.</p><p><b>micah</b>: We’re only a few weeks away from the Jeb Bush comeback narrative.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Jeb! does have five field offices in New Hampshire.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I think Bush is still probably toast. But Christie’s sort of semi-surge in New Hampshire is bad news for Rubio. With all that said, I go back to the managing expectations thing. Rubio hasn’t bowled anyone over with his endorsements, but he’s still received far more than anyone else since Labor Day. He has a couple of big super PAC donors lined up. His favorable ratings remain at or near the top of the field.</p><p><b>micah</b>: I think you’re too confident in toasting Bush.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: But, Micah, the problem for Bush is that Rubio is close to being a “<a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_dominance\">dominant strategy</a>” over him. Rubio&#8217;s more conservative, polls better than Bush head-to-head against Hillary Clinton, and he’s acceptable to a wider array of Republican actors.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Bush had a beautiful -15 percentage point net favorability rating among Republicans in the <a href=\"http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2311\">Quinnipiac poll</a> out today.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I could see there being a Bush comeback narrative &#8212; and it failing and helping to nominate Trump or (more likely) Cruz instead.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Clare, how would you rank the establishment candidates right now?</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Probably Rubio, Christie, Jeb, Kasich.</p><p><b>micah</b>: That’s how I have them too … Nate and Harry?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I agree with Clare’s order.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I concur. Of course, I’d probably write it “Rubio, CHRISTIE, Jeb, Kasich.”</p><p><b>micah</b>: OK, how would you rank them in New Hampshire?</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Christie and Rubio could flip in my mind in New Hampshire over the next month.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Well, I don’t want to spoil something I’m writing for next week, but I have reason to think Christie could do better in New Hampshire than we think at this point.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Here’s the thing, though, and it gets back to glass-half-full, glass-half-empty: Christie has some potential for a surge, I agree, and he’s a plausible winner in New Hampshire, but he also has a lot of baggage. Ideological baggage. Bridge-gate baggage. Loyalty-to-the-party baggage. And he doesn’t have all that much money and seems to have even less of a ground game than Rubio.</p><p>So, again, the risk the establishment runs is that it turns to Christie but he proves to be too weak to beat Cruz/Trump when Rubio just maybe could win a war of attrition against him.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Wait, what’s the proof he has less of a ground game in New Hampshire?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: He has <a href=\"http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/as-christie-rises-so-do-questions-about-his-plans-beyond-new-hampshire-216859\">virtually zero ground</a> game <i>beyond</i> New Hampshire. And with Cruz having a LOT of money and a seemingly pretty good ground game, it might be too little too late for Christie to build a competitive one.</p><p><b>harry</b>: OK, I agree with that Nate, but we’re talking New Hampshire here. And the ideological baggage isn’t baggage in a state where moderates grow on trees like wet snow in the early spring.</p><p><b>micah</b>: But here&#8217;s my point: Rubio looks great on paper &#8212; he has a “dominant strategy” &#8212; but there are a lot of scenarios in which he gets beat in Iowa, beat in New Hampshire and beat in South Carolina. At some point, looking good on paper, or being the shiniest establishment-approved loser, isn’t worth much.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: OK, but let’s work backward instead of forward here. Indulge me for a second.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Boxing metaphor??</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Suppose Rubio concludes that the establishment really has no other choice than to back him. Or at least no other good choice. Sure, Rubio has flaws, but they’re probably more manageable than Christie’s, Bush’s or Kasich’s. Furthermore, Rubio knows that the calendar becomes pretty good for him in March once you get into some larger, more diverse states.</p><p>At that point, it becomes a game of surviving until March. And how do you do that when you’re not inherently a great fit for any of Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina? You do it by keeping expectations modest so a few second- and third-place finishes look pretty good.</p><p>And maybe by winning Nevada.</p><p><b>micah</b>: But expectations aren’t modest, are they?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: They’ve become a lot more modest after all the negative stories we’ve seen on Rubio recently!</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Managing expectations. The age old tale. So we have come to the ultimate conclusion that he is … swimming along just as he has planned it all along?</p><p><b>micah</b>: How low can his expectations be? Rubio is No.1 in <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html\">betting markets</a>.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I don’t know. I don’t know. What is Rubio’s base? What is it? I’ve seen a lot of stories about how Bill Clinton didn’t win Iowa or New Hampshire and then won the nomination anyway. But remember, Clinton had the South. Not only that, but he had African-American voters. Who does Rubio have? It’s not like he has the South. (Granted, the South is more establishment-friendly than people give it credit for.)</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Well, Rubio might benefit from the delegate math. As <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/\">we’ve written</a>, there are disproportionately many delegates in blue and purple states, relative to the number of Republicans who will turn out.</p><p><b>micah</b>: See, I think Harry’s question gets at the potential problem for Rubio: Good on paper, less impressive when you look at the chess board.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Unless he’s playing 13-dimensional chess. [inhales bong hit]</p><p><b>harry</b>: Clearly, you have.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Can I cut through all this, not least because I really have to use the ladies room and it’s much farther away from the debate stage? What we’re all saying here is, “Dunno, could be Rubio! Gotta wait and see how the next month plays out, where the party establishment decides to rest their laurels!”</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’ll just say this. Trump is at 23 percent to win the nomination at <a href=\"http://predictwise.com/\">Predictwise</a> right now, which is a reasonably good approximation of the conventional wisdom. If you think that’s too high, you have some room to redistribute that 23 percent to the rest of the candidates. 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Porzingis Is A Freak — And Potentially A Superstar\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:94:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kristaps-porzingis-is-a-freak-and-potentially-a-superstar/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:102:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kristaps-porzingis-is-a-freak-and-potentially-a-superstar/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Wed, 16 Dec 2015 16:59:14 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:4:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Basketball\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:18:\"Kristaps Porzingis\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:3:\"NBA\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:15:\"New York Knicks\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=98433\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:531:\"The New York Knicks’ future once looked very dismal indeed. It looked that way for a very long time, for a great many reasons &#8212; but that was before the arrival of the Great Latvian Hope. Kristaps Porzingis, the 7-foot-3 rookie whose selection was resoundingly booed at this summer’s draft, has instead very quickly become [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=98433&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:21219:\"<p>The New York Knicks’ <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/every-nba-teams-chance-of-winning-a-title-by-2019/\">future once looked very dismal indeed</a>.<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/every-nba-teams-chance-of-winning-a-title-by-2019/\"> It looked that way for a very long time, for a great many reasons</a> &#8212; but that was before the arrival of the Great Latvian Hope. Kristaps Porzingis, the 7-foot-3 rookie whose selection was <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmIURIqjDmY\">resoundingly booed</a> at this summer’s draft, has instead very quickly become the most popular athlete at Madison Square Garden<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"1\" href=\"#fn-1\"><sup id=\"ss-1\">1</sup></a> after barely more than a month on the job.</p><p>Porzingis detonated onto the NBA landscape with <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t95MuUIVsxA\">a series of putback dunks</a> in his first handful of games; more importantly for Knicks fans, he&#8217;s since maintained a level of play that’s ranged between solid and spectacular. On the season, Porzingis is averaging 17.9 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes and draining threes at a rate that would make fellow Giant Baltic Person <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdlB8tX75Mc\">Arvydas Sabonis</a> proud.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"2\" href=\"#fn-2\"><sup id=\"ss-2\">2</sup></a> No player in NBA history, in fact, has possessed quite this combination of youth, height, quickness and outside shooting skills. Porzingis&#8217;s play has been so strong and so dazzling that he&#8217;s that rare rookie on whom airy basketball aesthetes and turgid statistical fundamentalists can agree: This kid is the real deal.</p><h2>The Porzingis projection</h2><p>So what does his future hold? We have a (probabilistic) basketball-shaped crystal ball called <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/\">CARMELO</a>,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"3\" href=\"#fn-3\"><sup id=\"ss-3\">3</sup></a> our NBA projection system. Before the season began, we ran CARMELO projections for more than 500 players; this included rookie projections for players such as <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/karl-anthony-towns/\">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>, the No. 1 overall pick and Porzingis&#8217;s opponent Wednesday night, based on their college statistics. But we didn’t run one for Porzingis or other international draft picks who didn’t play NCAA ball. Let’s fix that!</p><p>Below, you’ll see a CARMELO projection for Porzingis based on his first 25 NBA games. It makes one heroic assumption: extrapolating out that 25-game performance to a full 82-game season. In other words, it assumes not only that what Knicks fans have seen from Porzingis so far is about what they’ll get from the rest of the year, but also that he’ll stay healthy.</p><figure id=\"attachment_98445\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 579px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-98445\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/silver-porzingis-2.png?w=575\" alt=\"silver-porzingis!-2\"   /></figure><p>If those assumptions hold, the Knicks have a hell of a prospect on their hands. The NBA is a tough league for rookies, so merely staying in a team’s rotation at age 20 is often a sign of a bright future. So far, however, Porzingis has not just been a rotation player but an above-average one<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"4\" href=\"#fn-4\"><sup id=\"ss-4\">4</sup></a> &#8212; usually a sign of superstar potential. In fact, Porzingis’s long-term <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-53-best-franchise-players-in-the-nba/\">upside score</a>, based on his wins above replacement projection from 2016-17 through 2021-22, is 36.3. That’s very good; at the start of this season, it would have made Porzingis the 17th-most-valuable <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-53-best-franchise-players-in-the-nba/\">franchise player</a> in the league, in the same vicinity as Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Wall and Jimmy Butler.</p><p>But Porzingis’s projection also involves tremendous uncertainty. In 2018-19, for example, his 90th percentile projection<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"5\" href=\"#fn-5\"><sup id=\"ss-5\">5</sup></a> is 13.3 WAR, good enough to put him on the fringes of the MVP discussion. Meanwhile, his 10th percentile projection is just 0.0 WAR (exactly <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carmelo-anthonys-contract-could-doom-the-knicks-to-mediocrity/\">replacement level</a>), or roughly the same range as Quincy Acy. The error bars around CARMELO’s forecasts for young players are often wide, but these are especially so.</p><h2>OK, but is he Dirk?</h2><p>What gives? Part of it is the problem we alluded to before. CARMELO works by identifying comparable players, and Porzingis is a hard guy for which to find historical precedents. Only one player, Brook Lopez, achieves a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/\">similarity score</a> of 50 or higher with Porzingis<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"6\" href=\"#fn-6\"><sup id=\"ss-6\">6</sup></a> &#8212; and if we’re being frank, the Lopez-Porzingis connection doesn’t have the “eye test” appeal that CARMELO comparisons often do.</p><p>But faced with unusual players like Porzingis, CARMELO has to make some sacrifices. In the case of Lopez, it ignores the fact that Lopez almost never shoots from behind the arc (although he does have a decent midrange game). In the case of Kevin Love, Porzingis’s No. 4 comparable, it finds another big man with a good outside shot and strong rebounding numbers &#8212; but ignores that Love is shaped much differently than Porzingis, 5 inches shorter but quite a bit bulkier, especially in his youth. And since CARMELO relies on metrics that utilize box score stats, it can be difficult to translate calling-card traits like &#8220;quick feet in defensive transition&#8221; to on-the-stat-sheet comps, which in turn means the model may promote the formal similarity of Porzingis&#8217;s defensive numbers to those of <a href=\"http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kempsh01.html\">Shawn Kemp</a>, when he&#8217;s closer to Andrei Kirilenko stylistically.</p><p>You can get a fuller sense for the range of possibilities when sorting through Porzingis’s top 50 CARMELO comparables, a list that includes everyone from Shaquille O’Neal to Darko Milicic. There’s also a cameo appearance from Porzingis’s <a href=\"http://www.newsday.com/sports/basketball/knicks/kristaps-porzingis-gets-to-meet-dirk-nowitzki-his-european-idol-1.11198681\">idol</a>, Dirk Nowitzki, who checks in at No. 17. Why doesn’t he rank higher? Because, as Nowitzki <a href=\"http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-east/atlantic/new-york-knicks/nowitzki-porzingis-better-than-i-was-at-20/\">correctly</a> points out, Porzingis has been considerably <i>better</i> so far at age 20 than Nowitzki was at the same age. CARMELO “thinks” the Porzingis-Nowitzki comparison is unflattering &#8212; to Porzingis.</p><table class=\"viz full\"><caption>The 50 NBA players most comparable to Porzingis</caption><thead><tr><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">RANK</th><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">PLAYER</th><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">RANK</th><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">PLAYER</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"rank\">1</td><td class=\"text\">Brook Lopez</td><td class=\"rank\">26</td><td class=\"text\">Ryan Anderson</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Joe Smith</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">27</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Cliff Robinson</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">3</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Derrick Favors</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">28</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Al Jefferson</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Kevin Love</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">29</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Derrick Williams</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">5</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Anthony Randolph</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">30</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Tim Thomas</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">6</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Amar&#8217;e Stoudemire</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">31</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jonas Valanciunas</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">7</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Spencer Hawes</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">32</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rashard Lewis</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">8</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Tobias Harris</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">33</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Tracy McGrady</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">9</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Yi Jianlian</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">34</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Serge Ibaka</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">10</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Shawn Kemp</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">35</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Zaza Pachulia</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">11</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rudy Gay</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">36</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Darius Miles</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">12</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Elton Brand</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">37</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Greg Monroe</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">13</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">DeMarcus Cousins</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">38</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Andrei Kirilenko</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">14</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Lamar Odom</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">39</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Antoine Walker</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">15</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Kwame Brown</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">40</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Marvin Williams</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">16</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Michael Beasley</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">41</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jared Sullinger</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">17</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Dirk Nowitzki</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">42</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Harrison Barnes</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">18</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Shareef Abdur-Rahim</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">43</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Chris Webber</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">19</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Anthony Davis</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">44</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Thaddeus Young</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">20</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Josh Smith</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">45</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Paul George</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">21</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Kevin Garnett</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">46</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Eddy Curry</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">22</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Tyson Chandler</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">47</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Shaquille O&#8217;Neal</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">23</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Chris Bosh</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">48</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Darko Milicic</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">24</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Luol Deng</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">49</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Nene</td></tr><tr><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">25</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Enes Kanter</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">50</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Al-Farouq Aminu</td></tr></tbody></table><p>But Porzingis’s offensive approach does bear some resemblance to <i>today’s</i> Dirk Nowitzki. Porzingis is frequently compared to Jahlil Okafor and Towns, and that’s unsurprising considering that they play the same position and were all drafted so high. However, Porzingis is the only one in that trio who, like Nowitzki, has 21st-century range. In fact, his basic spatial shooting distribution closely mirrors that of the NBA itself as about a quarter of his shots come from downtown, a third come in the midrange and the rest come near the basket.</p><figure id=\"attachment_98450\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-98450\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/silver-porzingis-3.jpg?w=575\" alt=\"silver-porzingis!-3\"   /></figure><p>The diversity of Porzingis’s scoring portfolio is also an encouraging sign for his development. Although he converts his shots at just average rates from virtually every spot he shoots from, the fact that he can do that as a 20-year-old 7-foot-plusser is remarkable. While the league is full of bigs who can shoot the ball, it’s rare for a rookie to enter the league as such a competent shooter. Shooting was the Achilles heel of young bigs like Anthony Davis and Blake Griffin, who have since developed range out to the 3-point line.</p><p>The good news extends to the defensive side of the ball as well; Porzingis is already an effective rim protector. Considering that many were worried that he was “soft” entering the league, these numbers, perhaps more than his offensive ones, should put the doubters to bed. He blocks multiple shots per game, opponents shoot just 47 percent near the basket when he is present, and he is a big part of why the Knicks are among the most efficient rim-protecting teams in the NBA right now. <a href=\"http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/team/defense/?Season=2015-16&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;sort=DEF_RIM_FG_PCT&amp;dir=-1\">The Knicks</a>!</p><p>Then again: The Knicks! A franchise whose <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/complete-history-of-the-nba/#knicks\">glory days</a> are more than 40 years behind it, and which has squandered more than a few <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/keeping-lin-should-make-financial-sense-for-the-knicks/\">good opportunities</a> in the past. What could go wrong this time around?</p><h2>A strictly limited run?</h2><p>The one looming issue could be Porzingis’s durability. Among his top 50 comparables, about 20 percent<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"7\" href=\"#fn-7\"><sup id=\"ss-7\">7</sup></a> played fewer than 1,000 minutes (or were out of the league entirely) by their sixth NBA season. Usually, this is a sign of a serious injury. Furthermore, among his comparables, there was an inverse correlation between height and durability: The tallest players on Porzingis’s list were more injury-prone.</p><p>That’s a potential problem because Porzingis isn’t just tall but <i>gigantic</i>: one of <a href=\"http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=combined&amp;type=totals&amp;per_minute_base=36&amp;per_poss_base=100&amp;lg_id=NBA&amp;is_playoffs=N&amp;year_min=&amp;year_max=&amp;franch_id=&amp;season_start=1&amp;season_end=-1&amp;age_min=0&amp;age_max=99&amp;height_min=87&amp;height_max=99&amp;shoot_hand=&amp;birth_country_is=Y&amp;birth_country=&amp;birth_state=&amp;college_id=&amp;draft_year=&amp;is_active=&amp;debut_yr_nba_start=&amp;debut_yr_nba_end=&amp;debut_yr_aba_start=&amp;debut_yr_aba_end=&amp;is_hof=&amp;is_as=&amp;as_comp=gt&amp;as_val=&amp;award=&amp;pos_is_g=Y&amp;pos_is_gf=Y&amp;pos_is_f=Y&amp;pos_is_fg=Y&amp;pos_is_fc=Y&amp;pos_is_c=Y&amp;pos_is_cf=Y&amp;qual=&amp;c1stat=&amp;c1comp=gt&amp;c1val=&amp;c2stat=&amp;c2comp=gt&amp;c2val=&amp;c3stat=&amp;c3comp=gt&amp;c3val=&amp;c4stat=&amp;c4comp=gt&amp;c4val=&amp;c5stat=&amp;c5comp=gt&amp;c6mult=1.0&amp;c6stat=&amp;order_by=ws\">only 25 players ever</a> to play in the NBA at 7-foot-3 or taller. That produces some cool factoids &#8212; among players 7-foot-3 or taller, Porzingis has already drained the fourth-most 3-pointers in league history (behind Sabonis, Manute Bol and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) &#8212; along with some worrying trends. For instance: no player 7-foot-3 or taller has ever made it to his 1,000th NBA game. (Mark Eaton, with 875 career games, came closest.)</p><p>Is there really such a thing as being <i>too tall</i> for the NBA, as Phil Jackson <a href=\"https://www.google.com/search?q=phil+jackson&amp;oq=phil+jackson&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1526j0j4&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;es_sm=91&amp;ie=UTF-8#q=phil+jackson+too+tall\">asserted</a> when he drafted Porzingis? Well … maybe. The chart below tracks the height distribution of NBA players since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, weighted by minutes played, and compares it against a <a href=\"http://mathworld.wolfram.com/NormalDistribution.html\">normal distribution</a>.</p><figure id=\"attachment_98446\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-98446\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/silver-porzingis-1.png?w=575\" alt=\"silver-porzingis!-1\"   /></figure><p><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">There are some interesting discrepancies: the most conspicuous is that there are far fewer players listed at exactly 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5 than you’d expect from a normal distribution. That could reflect the fact that such players are “tweeners” &#8212; too small to play forward, but not necessarily fleet or agile enough to play guard &#8212; or that their heights are exaggerated upward to avoid the tweener label. Charles Barkley, officially listed at 6-foot-6, was </span><a style=\"line-height:1.5;\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/22/sports/basketball/22score.html\">probably more like 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5 instead</a><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">, for example.</span></p><p>There is also a comparative absence of players listed at 7-foot-1 or taller. Based on the normal distribution, you’d expect about 6 percent of NBA minutes to be played by these supergiant players; instead, about 3 percent of them have been. There are lots of plausible explanations for this &#8212; for instance, there may be diminishing returns to height beyond about 7 feet, and some very tall players may <a href=\"http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/34789/kevin-love-and-height-liars-in-shoes\">actually round their heights <i>down</i> instead of up</a>. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, one of the most durable players in league history, was listed at 7-foot-2, and opponents swore up and down that even that number was missing an inch or two. Still, looking at the broader trends, perhaps there is some reason to be concerned about players carrying such large frames.</p><p>But having “some reason to be concerned” is unavoidable in neurotic New York &#8212; and a heck of a lot better than the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/every-nba-teams-chance-of-winning-a-title-by-2019/\">state of absolute despair</a> that preceded it. And the upside is having a player who, like Anthony Davis, has a chance to redefine his position. <i>Porzingis!</i> is the most exciting show to hit the Knicks since Linsanity.</p><p><b>Read more:</b><br /><a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/\">CARMELO NBA Player Projections</a><br /><a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/\">2015-16 NBA Predictions</a></p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=98433&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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Rubio\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:7;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Ted Cruz\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=98381\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:534:\"The Republican debate in Las Vegas on Tuesday night had the feeling of a soccer match that ended in a nil-nil draw. It was a tactical and defensively minded affair, full of technically competent but predictable performances. The only candidates who broke form were those who didn’t have much to lose. This is interesting considering [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=98381&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10478:\"<p><span></span>The Republican debate in Las Vegas on Tuesday night had the feeling of a soccer match that ended in a nil-nil draw. It was a tactical and defensively minded affair, full of technically competent but predictable performances. The only candidates who broke form were those who didn’t have much to lose.</p><p>This is interesting considering that no Republican candidate should feel all that secure about his or her position in the race. Donald Trump is leading in the polls &#8212; but no similar candidate has won a party nomination before, and there remain many <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/\">reasons to wonder</a> whether those polls will translate to sustained success in winning states and delegates. Ted Cruz can feel happy about his <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html\">improved position in Iowa</a> &#8212; but he trails Trump nationally and is almost as detested by the party establishment. Marco Rubio is moving upward in the polls and the <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/\">endorsement count</a> &#8212; but the pace of his growth in these categories has been <a href=\"http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/why-gop-establishment-hasnt-yet-mobilized-behind-rubio-n477971\">slow</a>, and his <a href=\"http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428229/marco-rubio-campaign-organization-iowa-new-hampshire-criticism\">mediocre ground game</a><span></span> could prevent him from gaining more support as voting in the early states approaches.</p><p><span></span>For those of us who watched the debate at FiveThirtyEight, nothing in Las Vegas changed anything much. As in the past, we anonymously submitted grades scoring each candidate’s performance from A to F on the basis of how much we thought they improved their chances of winning the nomination. But the grades came out as a big muddle, with none of the major candidates averaging higher than a B or lower than a C. There also wasn’t much internal agreement about how the candidates did: Rubio, for instance, was graded everywhere from an A- to a D+ among the 14 staffers who voted.</p><table class=\"viz full\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">CANDIDATE</th><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">AVERAGE GRADE</th><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">HIGH GRADE</th><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">LOW GRADE</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">Marco Rubio</td><td class=\"rank highlight\">B</td><td class=\"rank\">A-</td><td class=\"rank\">D+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Ted Cruz</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Chris Christie</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">A-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">D+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jeb Bush</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">A</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rand Paul</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">D</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Donald Trump</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">D</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\"><span></span>Carly Fiorina</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">D</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Ben Carson</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">F</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\"><span></span>John Kasich</td><td class=\"rank highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">F</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Nonetheless, here are a few spare thoughts about the candidates:</p><p>If you hadn’t known what polls said ahead of time, you probably would have assumed that <b>Marco Rubio</b>, not Trump, was the polling front-runner. Rubio was the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/live-blogcnn-republican-debate-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-11070050\">most-attacked candidate</a> among those on stage, negatively mentioned or directly attacked by the other candidates 22 times, compared with 16 times for Trump, 10 times for Cruz and eight times for Jeb Bush.</p><figure id=\"attachment_98373\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-98373\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/koeze-varsity-attacks-11.png?w=575&#038;h=389\" alt=\"Rubio in the hot seat in the main debate\"   /></figure><p>There seemed to be an asymmetry between Rubio and <b>Ted Cruz</b>, with Cruz more eager to attack Rubio than the other way around. That makes a lot of sense: Rubio would benefit from a universe in which Cruz and Trump ate into each other’s vote and neither was able to achieve critical mass. Cruz, however, would love to force the establishment’s hand by making himself the establishment’s least-worst option in a one-on-one race with Trump.</p><p>For my money personally, <b>Chris Christie</b> had the best night of anyone on stage &#8212; largely because he <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/live-blogcnn-republican-debate-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-19845070\">benefited from other candidates’ tactical choices</a>. Christie still has a path to the nomination &#8212; it <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-new-hampshire-union-leaders-endorsement-help-chris-christie/\">runs through New Hampshire</a> &#8212; but he’s not quite threatening enough to receive the same scrutiny that Rubio, Cruz or Trump is getting or to be attacked by the other candidates. This is somewhat the same position that John Kerry was in during the 2004 Democratic primary, lying back as candidates such as Howard Dean and Joe Lieberman attacked each other.</p><p>I declared (along with lots of other folks) that <b>Jeb Bush</b> was “<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/\">probably toast</a>” six weeks ago &#8212; and that judgment holds even after what was perhaps his most effective debate of the cycle. The problem for Bush &#8212; in addition to his near-asterisk-level of support in polls &#8212; is that he seems to have fallen behind Rubio in the “invisible primary,” with Rubio having received <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/\">far more endorsements</a> lately. Furthermore, <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html\">he’s fallen behind Christie in New Hampshire polls</a>, so if Rubio falters, Christie could get a look before Bush does again. Even if Bush’s campaign has the money to play out the string, that’s quite a long-shot parlay: hope Rubio falters, hope you emerge as the establishment’s backup option instead of Christie, and <i>then</i> hope you beat Cruz and Trump in a year where voters seem to be looking in a different direction.</p><p>I’ve written <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/donald-trump/\">so much</a> about <b>Donald Trump</b> lately that I don’t have much more to say. In the near term, the swings in his polls probably mostly reflect the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/\">degree to which he’s monopolizing media coverage</a>. If the debate didn’t disrupt the news cycle much, that could be good news for Trump, since he has <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/live-blogcnn-republican-debate-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-10795972\">dominated news coverage lately</a>. And yet, the conventional wisdom has become so scared of prematurely declaring the “end of Trump” that it sometimes seems to grade him on a curve for <a href=\"http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/428591/after-trump-blanks-nuclear-question-rubio-explains-triad-terminology\">answers</a> that would be considered game-changers if uttered by other candidates. Trump <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-post-debate-losers-walker-and-winners-fiorina/\">hasn’t fared especially well</a> in the polls after previous debates, and it’s at least theoretically possible that voters judge him differently when he’s just one of nine candidates on stage instead of immersed in his own environment.</p><p>The other four candidates probably won’t have much of a say in who becomes the Republican nominee. <b>Rand Paul</b> has gradually gotten better as debate season has worn on, but his positions aren’t well-calibrated for a Republican base whose focus is increasingly on national security rather than economic affairs. <b>Ben Carson </b>has slowly but steadily been losing ground in the polls; like Paul, he probably does not benefit from the campaign’s increasing focus on foreign policy. <b>John Kasich</b> has <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-republican-debate-fox-business/\">played too much to the pundit class</a> and not 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Debates\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:23:\"2016 Republican Primary\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Ben Carson\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:4;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12:\"Donald Trump\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:5;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Jeb Bush\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:6;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Marco Rubio\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:7;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Slack Chat\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:8;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Ted Cruz\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=98066\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:568:\"For this week’s 2016 Slack chat, we introduce a new, fantasy-football-inspired game. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, deputy editor for politics): All right, with the last Republican presidential debate of 2015 tonight, we’re approaching a period when the Republican primary should really start to get going &#8212; when [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=98066&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"subtitle\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:40:\"Which candidate will quit the race next?\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:15326:\"<div class=\"mceTemp\"></div><p>For this week’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/slack-chat/\">2016 Slack chat</a>, we introduce a new, fantasy-football-inspired game. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>micah </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, deputy editor for politics): All right, with the last Republican presidential debate of 2015 tonight, we’re approaching a period when the Republican primary should really start to get going &#8212; when the field should start to consolidate. So to get a sense for how the dominoes may tumble, we’re going to play “Dropout Draft.” Nate, give us the rules.</p><p><b>natesilver </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, editor in chief): Well, this is pretty simple. The rules are this: You get five points if a candidate drops out (or “suspends his campaign”) in December, three points if he does so in January, and one point in February. No points for dropouts after that.</p><p><b>clare.malone </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/clare-malone/\">Clare Malone</a>, senior political writer): Is there a monetary incentive to this?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah. The winner gets bought a six-pack of beer of his or her choosing, or that godforsaken A&amp;W cream soda stuff Harry drinks if he wins somehow.</p><p>Also, you can’t pick Jim Gilmore. Because, really.</p><p><b>harry </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\">Harry Enten</a>, senior political writer): Nate is so anti-Gilmore. It’s disgusting.</p><div class=\"non-jetpack-embed \"><div class=\"embed-twitter\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" width=\"550\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Revealing thing <a href=\"https://twitter.com/NateSilver538\">@NateSilver538</a> just said in the office: &quot;How do you spell Gilmore?&quot;</p><p>&mdash; Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/micahcohen/status/676813110200696834\">December 15, 2015</a></p></blockquote><p><script async src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"></script></div></div><p><b>natesilver</b>: #feelthegil</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: It’s a nice little vote of confidence for George Pataki there.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: We drew cards to determine the draft order, and it’s 1. Harry, 2. Clare, 3. Nate, 4. Micah. And everyone else rejected my proposal for a snake draft, so we’ll just do a straight three-round draft.</p><p>So we’re off. With the first pick in the 2016 Republican Dropout Draft, Harry Enten selects….</p><p><b>harry</b>: The junior senator from the Commonwealth of Kentucky: Rand Paul.</p><p>His favorable ratings are not good, his poll numbers are so bad that he was nearly left out of tonight’s mainstage debate, he has a re-election campaign to worry about, and unlike the JV debaters this time around, Paul could actually be a player down the line.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Rand is the Jadeveon Clowney of this draft. That’s a solid pick. I thought he would drop out before Thanksgiving.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Is this a PPR league? Clare, you have the second pick.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: OK, I think I’m going to go with Lindsey Graham.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Shit, he was No. 1 on my board.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I think he’s feeling queasy about the current state of the party &#8212; he basically <a href=\"http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/lindsey-graham-gives-got-a-lesson-in-winning-elections\">said as much</a> a couple of weeks ago, and I think that he might want to get out of the race and start saying stuff to calm everyone the hell down.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Also, it’s not like he has an issue to trumpet. His main cause, an aggressive foreign policy, now <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-may-have-already-won/\">comes standard</a> with the other Republican candidates (save Paul).</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, and there’s been some solid reporting about how some of the more moderate Republicans are hesitating in endorsing other candidates out of deference to Graham. But if he’s really concerned about the party’s health, he might want to get out of the way.</p><p><b>micah</b>: With the #3 pick, Nate Silver is on the clock …</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: (Nate is muttering under his breath.)</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: This is tricky. Can’t believe Clare took Graham. But I’ll go with John Kasich.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Interesting! I don’t agree.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I don’t like this pick. I think he’s going to wait until New Hampshire.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Because he has fire in his belly like a 17th-century Boston preacher?</p><p><b>micah</b>: That too.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I think Donald Trump is playing with Nate’s mind, and Nate is now irrational.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Justify yourself, Nate.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Look, Kasich doesn’t have a ton of money, he has no sign of momentum, and he’s been a little bit valedictory lately in critiquing Trump and the state of the race. To me, that makes him a poor man’s Lindsey Graham.</p><p><b>harry</b>: He has New Hampshire. HE HAS NEW HAMPSHIRE! Or not. He’ll probably lose New Hampshire to my main man Chris Christie.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, but at least I’m going to get my one point when he drops out after that. Unless he holds on until Ohio. Which he might do, come to think of it, because he’s sort of an egomaniac.</p><p>OK, maybe that was a terrible pick.</p><p>Micah, you’re up next.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Hmm &#8230;</p><p><b>harry</b>: HURRY UP.</p><p><b>micah</b>: George Pataki</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: That’s like drafting a fucking punter in the first round.</p><p><b>micah</b>: He has no chance, and he’s not completely Gilmore-ing it. And there will be pressure among establishment candidates to drop out.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: But he had no chance to begin with, so what’s gonna compel him to drop out?</p><p><b>micah</b>: See above re: establishment pressure. [Editor’s note: Pataki <a href=\"http://www.texastribune.org/2015/12/14/gilmore-pataki-miss-filing-deadline-texas-primary/\">missed the filing deadline</a> for the Texas primary &#8212; not exactly a sign of a serious or well-organized candidate.]</p><p>OK, Harry, you have the #5 pick</p><p><b>harry</b>: It pains me to do this because I admired her leadership at HP, but Carly Fiorina.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: When you were an employee there at age 8.</p><p><b>micah</b>: I was going back and forth on her.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’m playing to win.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Cream soda gleaming in the distance&#8230;</p><p><b>micah</b>: I think Fiorina has a little “I’m doing this to raise my profile and get a better TV contract” — so I think she’ll stay in as long as she can.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, I think that might be a little early for Fiorina. With a bunch of debates ahead &#8212; and she’s pretty good at those &#8212; she can still maximize her exposure for future speaking circuit $$$ without embarrassing herself.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Gee whiz, we’re all so cynical.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I just think she’s greeted by half-filled audiences at her appearances. She’s getting closer and closer to falling off the main stage with her poll averages. Do I think she’ll drop out this month? No. But I wouldn’t be shocked if she dropped out in January.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Clare, you have the sixth pick.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Oh man, only eight left to choose from</p><p>I think I’m going to say Rick Santorum. He’s really putting in the legwork in Iowa, but I just think that once that primary passes, he’s out. He’s just not the evangelical flavor du jour.</p><p><b>micah</b>: That’s a good pick. Post-Iowa, I can see Santorum hanging it up.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: It’s a good pick for ME because I’m gonna get huge value at No. 7. And I’ve gotta think Santorum is keeping 2012 in the back of his mind, where his surge in Iowa came at the proverbial 11th hour.</p><p>My pick. I am thrilled beyond belief that Jeb Bush fell to No. 7. He’s my choice.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Naw, man. I think he waits it out. He doesn&#8217;t want to bring shame on the family.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Yeah, I think he’s in through New Hampshire at least. Although, maybe avoiding shame means dropping out before any voting takes place.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I think they’re more face-the-music types. Old New England.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Bush has a lot of money &#8212; and almost NOTHING else going for him. And he’s a party guy who might have the best interests of the GOP in mind. The resources he commands could be helpful elsewhere: He’s about the only candidate on the Venn diagram who could meaningfully help another establishment candidate to win, and yet who doesn’t have much chance himself.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I gotta agree with Mr. Nathaniel Read Silver here.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><strong>Take a listen to our election podcast pilot</strong></p><audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-98066-2\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%; visibility: hidden;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"\" src=\"http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2632960/whatsthepoint_2015-12-15-110700.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138&#038;_=2\" /><a href=\"http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2632960/whatsthepoint_2015-12-15-110700.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138\">http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2632960/whatsthepoint_2015-12-15-110700.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138</a></audio><p><em>We&#8217;re launching our election podcast in January. For now, take a listen to the pilot in the feed for <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/podcast\">our podcast</a> What&#8217;s The Point.</em></p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>micah</b>: With the No. 8 pick, I’m going with … Ben Carson. Bam! The doctor has better things to do if his support in the polls drops into mid-single digits.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Back to pondering the grain stores of Egypt.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Solid pick, Micah. Not clear how much his heart is in the campaign, and his trajectory in the polls has been steady and downward.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Glad you approve, Nate.</p><p>Harry, you’re next.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Folks, I’m going to pick the greatest presidential candidate ever: Donald Trump. I have to do it. Do I think he’ll drop out? No. But of the players left on the board, there really isn’t anything solid. He has the highest upside. As my JV baseball coach said about me, “He’s a diamond in the rough.&#8221;</p><p><b>micah</b>: You should have picked Mike Huckabee.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: YOU TOOK TRUMP WITH HUCKABEE STILL ON THE BOARD?!?!?</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Harry is now claiming that he was confused.</p><p><b>micah</b>: DRAFT DAY CONTROVERSY!</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: SANTORUM AND HUCKABEE ARE <i>NOT</i> THE SAME PERSON</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Your JV coach’s words are ringing in all of our ears.</p><p><b>harry</b>: To be honest, Nate’s whiteboard is really dirty, and I just didn’t see that Huckabee’s name was still on it.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: That is not a metaphor, or a euphemism.</p><p><b>micah</b>: For the record, here’s the white board:</p><figure id=\"attachment_98070\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 575px\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-98070\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/20151215_125800.jpg?w=575&#038;h=1024\" alt=\"20151215_125800\" width=\"575\" height=\"1024\" /></figure><p>All right, well, you’re stuck with Trump.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: My turn???</p><p><b>micah</b>: Clare, you have the #10 pick.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: HUCKABEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE</p><p><b>micah</b>: Yay!</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Like butta. I feel like the reasons are obvious.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Nate, you’re up.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Clare’s team is gonna be tough to beat.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I guess I’ll complete my establishment triumvirate by adding Chris Christie to Bush and Kasich.</p><p><b>micah</b>: You are bad at this game, Nate.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Wait, what?</p><p><b>micah</b>: You should have diversified!</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: He couldn&#8217;t see the board.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Horrible pick.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Christie has <i>some</i> momentum now. But not that much. Whoop-de-doo &#8212; he’s at 11 percent in one poll of New Hampshire. And he has all sorts of liabilities if he rises to the top of the field again.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Nate’s putting all his chips on the establishment meeting behind the scenes, picking Rubio, and having everyone else exit stage-right.</p><p><b>harry</b>: You know, I’m getting sick of your anti-Christie vibe, Nate. It’s not like he stopped <i>you</i> from crossing the George Washington Bridge.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m actually slightly bullish on Christie, despite all that! I’m just saying there’s some solid value there for the 11th pick.</p><p><b>micah</b>: So I have the last pick.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Yes</p><p><b>micah</b>: OK &#8212; Marco Rubio</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: President Ted Cruz it is.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Even though i think he is more likely to win than Cruz, I think Rubio is also more likely to drop out. Cruz is in this until the balloons drop in Cleveland.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Best damn balloons in the nation. [Editor’s note: Ohio nativism.]</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m still of the belief, although it’s been wavering lately, that Rubio is the more likely nominee than Cruz. But I like Micah’s pick despite that.</p><p>Cruz doesn’t give a damn about annoying anyone. And he might have a higher floor than Rubio, even if he also has less chance of achieving his ceiling.</p><p>OK, let’s look at the final “teams”:</p><p>Harry: Paul, Fiorina, Trump</p><p>Clare: Graham, Santorum, Huckabee</p><p>Nate: Kasich, Bush, Christie</p><p>Micah: Pataki, Carson, Rubio</p><p><b>micah</b>: That’s an amazing team, Clare!</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I’m pretty confident in my dream team.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Let’s allow the game to be played.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: You’re just salty, Harry.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Here’s how I would rank the teams: Clare &gt; Harry &gt; Micah &gt; Nate.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Nate is garbage.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m looking forward to that six-pack, guys.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I expect mine to be Great Lakes Beer.</p><p><b>micah</b>: OK, we’ll check back in on this as people drop out. Enjoy the debate, everyone!</p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=98066&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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Boom Or Trump Bubble?\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:63:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:71:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Tue, 15 Dec 2015 14:10:42 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:5:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13:\"2016 Election\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:23:\"2016 Republican Debates\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:23:\"2016 Republican Primary\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12:\"Donald Trump\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:4;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:9:\"The Media\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=97986\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:532:\"The Republican debate on Tuesday night in Las Vegas will offer Republican presidential contenders a rare opportunity: the chance, at least for a couple of hours, to compete on a level stage with Donald Trump, who has dominated coverage of the campaign for months on end. Understanding the dynamics of the modern media environment is [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=97986&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"subtitle\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:69:\"Don’t expect his numbers to fade — until his media coverage does.\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:25948:\"<p>The Republican debate on Tuesday night in Las Vegas will offer Republican presidential contenders a rare opportunity: the chance, at least for a couple of hours, to compete on a level stage with Donald Trump, who has dominated coverage of the campaign for months on end.</p><p>Understanding the dynamics of the modern media environment is an important skill for a candidate, and it’s a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-the-worlds-greatest-troll/\">skill that Trump has mastered</a>. But it’s also important to understand the effects that media coverage can have on the campaign and on the polls. By one measure we’ll get to in a moment, Trump has received about the most <i>disproportionate</i> media coverage ever for a primary candidate. The risk to Trump and candidates like him is that polling built on a foundation of media coverage can be subject to a correction when the news environment changes.</p><p>The data I’ll cite in this article comes from searches of <a href=\"http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=NewsLibrary&amp;p_action=keyword&amp;p_theme=newslibrary2&amp;p_queryname=4000&amp;s_home=home&amp;s_sources=location&amp;p_clear_search=&amp;s_search_type=keyword&amp;s_place=&amp;d_refprod=NewsLibrary\">NewsLibrary.com</a>, an online archive of American newspapers from the 1980s onward. For each competitive primary since 1984, I’ve counted the number of articles about each candidate in the last six months of the pre-primary year (for example, July 2003 through December 2003 in the case of the 2004 Democratic nomination). I count it as a “hit” whenever a candidate’s full name<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"8\" href=\"#fn-8\"><sup id=\"ss-8\">8</sup></a> appears in the lead paragraph of an article, but no other candidate’s name<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"9\" href=\"#fn-9\"><sup id=\"ss-9\">9</sup></a> does.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"10\" href=\"#fn-10\"><sup id=\"ss-10\">10</sup></a> I limited the search to candidates who were still officially running for president as of Dec. 31 of the pre-primary year, excluding those who dropped out of the race early or who never officially entered.</p><table class=\"viz full\"><caption>Which candidates dominated the media primary?</caption><thead><tr><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">RACE</th><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">MOST-COVERED CANDIDATE</th><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">SECOND-MOST COVERED</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">RATIO</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">1984 Democratic</td><td class=\"text\">Jesse Jackson (33%)</td><td class=\"text\">Walter Mondale (22%)</td><td class=\"number\">1.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1988 Democratic</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Gary Hart (36%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jesse Jackson (21%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1988 Republican</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">George H.W. Bush (41%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Bob Dole (23%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1992 Democratic</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Douglas Wilder (40%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Bob Kerrey (17%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2.3</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1996 Republican</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Bob Dole (69%)</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Phil Gramm (10%)</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">6.7</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2000 Democratic</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Al Gore (70%)</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Bill Bradley (30%)</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2.3</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2000 Republican</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">George W. Bush (72%)</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">John McCain (16%)</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2004 Democratic</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Howard Dean (40%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Wesley Clark (19%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 Democratic</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Hillary Clinton (45%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Barack Obama (27%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1.7</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 Republican</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rudy Giuliani (24%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Mitt Romney (24%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2012 Republican</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rick Perry (37%)</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Mitt Romney (22%)</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1.7</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2016 Democratic</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Hillary Clinton (77%)</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Bernie Sanders (20%)</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">3.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2016 Republican</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Donald Trump (54%)</td><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jeb Bush (8%)</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">6.3</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Since July, Trump has received 54 percent of the media coverage of the GOP primary<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"11\" href=\"#fn-11\"><sup id=\"ss-11\">11</sup></a> &#8212; about six times more than Jeb Bush, who’s in second place with just 8 percent of coverage.</p><p>Trump isn’t the only candidate to receive such a large fraction of coverage in his primary &#8212; Hillary Clinton is getting 77 percent of the media coverage in hers, far exceeding Bernie Sanders’s 20 percent. Bob Dole dominated media coverage in the 1996 GOP race, and George W. Bush and Al Gore did in their respective races in 2000.</p><p>But Dole, Bush and Gore were much more dominant than Trump in the polls (not to mention other measures like the “<a href=\"http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/how_to_understand_the_invisibl.php\">invisible primary</a>”<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"12\" href=\"#fn-12\"><sup id=\"ss-12\">12</sup></a>). So is Clinton this year. Trump has spent most of the year in the <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/\">high 20s or low 30s in national polls</a> (with some higher numbers recently &#8212; we’ll get back to those in a moment). That’s better than most observers, us included, would have expected. The other candidates I mentioned, however, routinely had &#8212; or have in Clinton’s case &#8212; numbers in the 40s, 50s or 60s in national polls, about twice Trump’s level of support.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"13\" href=\"#fn-13\"><sup id=\"ss-13\">13</sup></a></p><hr /><p><strong>Take a listen to our election podcast pilot</strong></p><audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-97986-3\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%; visibility: hidden;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"\" src=\"http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2632960/whatsthepoint_2015-12-15-110700.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138&#038;_=3\" /><a href=\"http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2632960/whatsthepoint_2015-12-15-110700.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138\">http://c.espnradio.com/s:5L8r1/audio/2632960/whatsthepoint_2015-12-15-110700.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D3138</a></audio><p><em>We&#8217;re launching our election podcast in January. For now, take a listen to the pilot in the feed for <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/podcast\">our podcast</a> What&#8217;s The Point.</em></p><hr /><p>Historically, in fact,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"14\" href=\"#fn-14\"><sup id=\"ss-14\">14</sup></a> there has been nearly a one-to-one correspondence between a candidate’s share of media coverage and his share of the vote in the polls. That is, other things held equal, a candidate earning 30 percent in national polls tends to get about 30 percent of the media coverage, while one polling at 10 percent will get 10 percent of it instead. It’s just that simple.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"15\" href=\"#fn-15\"><sup id=\"ss-15\">15</sup></a></p><p>Thus, we can readily compare a candidate’s share of media coverage to his polling average. Trump, for example, has received an average of 28 percent of the Republican vote in national polls since July, according to <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary\">HuffPost Pollster</a>. Prorate that number upward to exclude undecided voters and candidates who have exited the race, and you get him up to 32 percent. By comparison, Trump has received 54 percent of the media coverage of the GOP race, so his media coverage has exceeded his share in the polls by 22 percentage points.</p><p>That is a big gap, although not the largest on record. Instead, the record belongs to Jesse Jackson, who received 33 percent of the media coverage in the run-up to the 1984 Democratic primaries despite usually polling only in the high single digits.</p><table class=\"viz full\"><caption>Candidates with more support in media than in polls</caption><thead><tr><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">CANDIDATE</th><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">RACE</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">SHARE OF MEDIA</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">ADJ. SHARE OF POLLS</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">EXCESS MEDIA</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">Jesse Jackson</td><td class=\"text\">1984 D</td><td class=\"number\">33%</td><td class=\"number\">9%</td><td class=\"number highlight\">+24%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Donald Trump</td><td class=\"text bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2016 R</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">54%</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">32%</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+22%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Douglas Wilder</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1992 D</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">40%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">19%</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+21%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rick Perry</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2012 R</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">37%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">18%</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+19%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Howard Dean</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2004 D</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">40%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">21%</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+19%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Pat Robertson</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1988 R</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">23%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">7%</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+16%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Hillary Clinton</td><td class=\"text bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2016 D</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">77%</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">65%</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+12%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Mitt Romney</td><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 R</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">24%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">13%</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+11%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>It’s odd to compare Jackson and Trump, but their candidacies have some similarities: Both were nationally renowned (and controversial) figures before embarking on their campaigns, and their candidacies were <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/11/04/jesse-jackson-why-the-chorus-of-naysayers/8b5653e6-b79b-465d-aa6f-2acb482d33b9/\">strongly opposed by most members of their party establishment</a>. Eventually, Jackson fared reasonably well, winning two states and 18 percent of the Democratic vote in the 1984 primaries and advancing political participation in the black community, although he never came close to winning the nomination.</p><p>Other candidates whose media coverage exceeded their polls did not perform so well, however. The media excitement surrounding Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder’s campaign in 1991 &#8212; understandable given that he’d recently become the first African-American governor elected in any state since Reconstruction &#8212; never translated into much momentum, and Wilder exited the race in January.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"16\" href=\"#fn-16\"><sup id=\"ss-16\">16</sup></a> Rick Perry’s highly anticipated campaign during the 2012 cycle went boom-and-bust quickly.</p><p>A potentially more important precedent for Trump is Howard Dean, who overcame Democrats’ initial skepticism to build up quite a lot of momentum in the polls in late 2003. Juxtaposed against a bland field of candidates such as Dick Gephardt and John Kerry, Dean was the most exciting thing going. But he became the central figure in the narrative in a way that exceeded his good-but-not-great level of popular support, with media coverage that roughly doubled his share of the vote in polls. Dean’s numbers faded in the last few days before the Iowa caucuses, and the media turned on him after his third-place finish there, contributing to a crash in his national standing.</p><p>This is not to say that candidates whose media coverage exceeds their polls are necessarily doomed; in a regression analysis, the effect of media coverage on a candidate’s eventual share of the national primary popular vote is neutral, controlling for his share of the vote in polls. But media-dependent candidates have considerably more volatility and uncertainty in their results once the voting takes place; a higher share of media coverage is correlated with a higher error in predicting a candidate’s eventual vote share.</p><p>Here’s how that could be a problem for Trump. Despite how contentious the Republican race has become, <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-07/when-will-iowa-republicans-make-up-their-minds-\">the overwhelming majority of Republican voters are still considering multiple candidates</a> and have a favorable impression of several Republicans. Trump has consistently led in polls when voters are asked for their first choice, but his net favorability ratings are only in the middle of the pack. In other words, he’s converting an unusually high percentage of potential supporters into people who list him as their first choice.</p><p>How is he managing to pull that off? Some of it may be because he excites voters more than other candidates do &#8212; and differentiates himself more from the pack. But some of it may also be because he comes up first in voters’ minds because of the way he’s so dominated news coverage of the race.</p><p>It’s possible to develop a model of this. Below, I’ve listed each Republican candidate’s share of media coverage since July, along with the candidate’s average net favorability rating<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"17\" href=\"#fn-17\"><sup id=\"ss-17\">17</sup></a> among Republican voters. In a linear regression, these two variables predict a candidate’s polling average almost perfectly<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"18\" href=\"#fn-18\"><sup id=\"ss-18\">18</sup></a> &#8212; usually within a percentage point or two.</p><table class=\"viz full\"><caption>Polls can be predicted based on favorability ratings and media coverage</caption><thead><tr><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">CANDIDATE</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">NET FAVORABILITY</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">SHARE OF MEDIA COVERAGE</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">ACTUAL POLL AVERAGE</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">PREDICTED POLL AVERAGE</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">Carson</td><td class=\"number highlight\">+61%</td><td class=\"number\">7%</td><td class=\"number\">14%</td><td class=\"number\">10%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rubio</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+61%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">8%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">9%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Cruz</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+49%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">5%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">8%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">8%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Fiorina</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+42%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">6%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Huckabee</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+42%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">6%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Bush</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+29%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">8%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">9%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">7%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Trump</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+28%</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">54%</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">28%</td><td class=\"number bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">28%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Santorum</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+23%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">3%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Kasich</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+21%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">5%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Christie</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+18%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">5%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Paul</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">+9%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">4%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Gilmore</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">-7%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Graham</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">-8%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Pataki</td><td class=\"number highlight\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">-11%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">0%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>What this means is that a candidate with medium favorability ratings may nevertheless come up as the plurality first choice if he cleans everyone’s clock in terms of media coverage. (Conversely, if they’re not top-of-mind, candidates &#8212; like Ben Carson or Marco Rubio &#8212; may be everyone’s second or third choice despite being broadly acceptable to Republican voters.)</p><p>The interesting thing, as we’ve pointed out <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/\">before</a>, is that a candidate can potentially gain in the polls in the short term by increasing his media coverage, even if he potentially hurts his favorability rating. Trump seems to realize this. So far in December &#8212; a month in which, among other things, he’s proposed to ban Muslims from entering the United States &#8212; he’s been the subject of 70 percent of media coverage of the Republican race, even higher than his long-term average of 54 percent. According to the regression, that extra media coverage is worth about 8 percentage points in the polls: <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html\">almost exactly how much Trump has gained in national polls since the month began</a> and enough to put him in the mid-30s in the polling average instead of the high 20s.</p><p>Is such a strategy sustainable? Can Trump continue to dominate media coverage as much as he has already?</p><p>The news cycle over the past month has been favorable for Trump. The terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-u-s-voters-react-to-the-paris-attacks/\">played into his core message</a> about the dangers posed by Islamic State. Meanwhile, there hasn’t been much going on to compete with this news, with no Republican debate since Nov. 10 and no other major shake-ups in the race such as a leading candidate dropping out.</p><p>Meanwhile, as Trump probably realizes, the media’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/\">obsession with polls</a> can become a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-is-in-a-self-reinforcing-funk/\">self-perpetuating cycle</a>: Trump’s being in the media spotlight tends to help him in the polls, which in turn keeps him in the spotlight, which in turn helps in the polls, and so forth.</p><p>But that will change as debates occur more frequently (there are three scheduled between now and Iowa) and other candidates begin to drop out of the race. Ted Cruz is also <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-ted-cruz-wins-iowa/\">emerging as a potential foil to Trump</a>, when one may have been lacking before. Most importantly, Republicans will begin going to the polls, starting Feb. 1 in the Iowa caucuses.</p><p>My guess is that most of these eventualities represent more downside than upside for Trump, simply because his dominance of the news cycle is so complete right now that other candidates almost can’t help but catch up. One of the usual rewards for winning Iowa or New Hampshire is a massive increase in media coverage, but Trump already has plenty of it. If Cruz or Rubio were to win one of those states, conversely, the newly won attention could help them convert their broad acceptability across the Republican electorate into first place in the polls and in future states.</p><p>So far, however, Trump has exploited every opportunity to keep his momentum going. 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Convention?\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:80:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:88:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Fri, 11 Dec 2015 02:39:06 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:7:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13:\"2016 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Cruz\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=97718\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:568:\"The Washington Post published a story late Thursday that started a heated argument in the FiveThirtyEight offices. So we&#8217;re doing an extra 2016 Slack chat this week! The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): It comes up every presidential primary, and it’s always simultaneously fun and eye-roll-inducing when it does: [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=97718&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:17458:\"<p>The Washington Post published a story late Thursday that started a heated argument in the FiveThirtyEight offices. So we&#8217;re doing an extra <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/slack-chat/\">2016 Slack chat</a> this week! The transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b><span></span>micah</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, politics editor): It comes up every presidential primary, and it’s always simultaneously fun and eye-roll-inducing when it does: the contested convention. The dream of all political obsessives, a contested convention occurs when no candidate enters with the required number of delegates to clinch the nomination. On Thursday evening, Robert Costa of The Washington Post <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">reported</a> that GOP bigwigs are &#8220;preparing for the possibility of a brokered convention as businessman Donald Trump continues to sit atop the polls in the GOP presidential race.” The basic plan: If the Republican establishment can’t stop Trump in primaries and caucuses, they’ll have to do it at the convention.</p><p>So, is a contested convention really possible?</p><p><b>clare.malone</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/clare-malone/\">Clare Malone</a>, senior political writer): Anything is possible, Micah.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\"><span></span>Harry Enten</a>, senior political writer): What is the definition of &#8220;really possible&#8221;? It’s really possible that Nate, Clare and I go to Vegas and play poker tonight, but chances are that it won’t happen.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I have no plans.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, editor in chief): Plenty of flights still available. We could make it.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Let me reframe: How likely do you think a contested convention is? And what would cause it?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Back in August, I defined <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/roundtable-is-the-republican-establishment-losing-control-of-the-party/\">these three scenarios</a>:</p><ol><li>An actual brokered convention.</li><li>The nomination is decided before the convention, but there’s genuine uncertainty about who the nominee will be after the last primaries.</li><li>No candidate has technically clinched the nomination as of the date of the last primary, but the writing’s on the wall.</li></ol><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Yeah, this chat is about No. 1.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: So where everyone goes to Cleveland genuinely unsure about who the nominee is? In August, I put the chances of that at 10 percent. Now, I’d probably put them at about 20 percent.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I love a good conspiracy theory/out of nowhere plot twist, so I think I’m gonna say 40 percent! Who knows what will happen in the land of Trump! No, I mean, not that high, but I think it is interesting that the party priests are so serious about it.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: All right, so here’s my thing: We are 53 days from the Iowa caucuses. Until we actually see how the primary will develop, I can’t say 20 percent. I can say 10 percent. I can see it. It can happen. But the problem is that I’ve heard this song and dance before. In fact, I found seven of the 11 open primaries since 1984 had at least some talk of a contested convention. It happened in <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/15/how_likely_is_a_brokered_convention.html\">2012</a>, <a href=\"http://www.usnews.com/news/campaign-2008/articles/2008/02/08/obama-clinton-head-toward-convention-contested\">2008 Democrats</a> and <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/looking_ahead_to_the_republica.html\">2008 Republicans</a>, <a href=\"http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/brokered_convention/\">2004</a>, <a href=\"http://articles.latimes.com/1992-04-05/opinion/op-758_1_brokered-convention\">1992</a>, <a href=\"http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1988/03/20/page/1/article/a-brokered-convention-might-be-a-lot-of-smoke/index.html\">1988</a> and <a href=\"https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=892&amp;dat=19830725&amp;id=pVhQAAAAIBAJ&amp;sjid=5FcDAAAAIBAJ&amp;pg=2101,4069655&amp;hl=en\">1984</a>.</p><p>So could this year maybe be different? Sure. But it’s going to take actual results to convince me it&#8217;s more than a marginal possibility.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Do you think people just like talking about it? Scare people straight in some way? Toward a more “viable” candidate?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: I dunno, 20 percent is not that high.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Not as high as the folks at High Times, but to me it’s fairly high. The Eagles had only a 12 percent shot to beat the Patriots last week, <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/\">according to our Elo ratings</a>. I put a contested convention on about the same plane as that.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Brief public service announcement on the terms we&#8217;re using from our managing editor, David Firestone:</p><blockquote><p><span></span>A brokered convention is one (historical) form of a contested convention, when state party leaders (or union bosses) acted as brokers for their delegates in the convention horse-trading. Those bosses and brokers no longer exist, so the candidates will have to do the negotiating, along with leaders like RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, etc., who can hope to use their clout to sway delegates. Of course, there’s no recent historical precedent for that, since all the big rule changes, so no one really knows how this would work.</p></blockquote><p>For more, see <a href=\"http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/deadlocked-not-brokered-is-kind-of.html\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and <a href=\"http://prospect.org/article/um-whats-brokered-convention\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> (by our own Clare when she was writing for The American Prospect!).</p><p>End announcement.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: You’ve had a lot of <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention#Brokered_conventions_in_history\" target=\"_blank\">near misses</a>, however, Harry. And when there’s a small sample size, it’s important to look at the number of near misses. Put another way, we’ve come way closer in the recent past to having a brokered convention than having someone like Trump win a major party nomination. (Errr … contested convention. Excuse me.)</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b><span></span>: Citing Wikipedia, a sign of first-rate scholarship. 1980 was a fantasy contested convention. Jimmy Carter had that thing wrapped up. 1984 was perhaps the closest. 1988 wasn’t really all that close; Michael Dukakis was the only guy acceptable to most of the party and clearly won enough delegates. So, one out of 12 times. Seems fairly equal to my 10 percent or so estimate.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Someone explain to me how a contested convention would come about.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: That part’s easy, or easy enough.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Trump just keeps trucking, right? Gaining steam.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: And Trump <i>is</i> <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!smoothing=less&amp;estimate=custom\">gaining steam</a>.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: It requires two basic ingredients. First, Trump stays in the race, but hits a ceiling in his support. Anywhere from 20 percent to 35 percent of the vote or so would do. Second, the GOP establishment is torn between resigning itself to Ted Cruz and some other choice, most likely Marco Rubio.</p><p>Both of those things seem … entirely possible to me.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I’m interested in the idea of seeing the candidates do deals behind the scenes. Who would align with whom?</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b><span></span>: All the establishment candidates &#8212; Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich &#8212; could unite! But I guess that’s why Cruz is crucial.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: In other words, it requires three candidates sticking around long enough. Nate thinks it’s Cruz, Rubio and Trump. I think Cruz is the most important here, but it could be Cruz, Rubio and, dare I say, Chris Christie.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Yeah, Cruz seems to be the main ingredient for a contested convention; you could see him not playing ball with the establishment to stop Trump.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Was about to say, that guy has a lot of enemies in the GOP. A collaborative atmosphere does not seem like it would be his thing.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: See, I’d assign a fairly low likelihood to that possibility, Harry. If the establishment has the ability to win the nomination just by choosing between Christie and Rubio, it’s going to pick one of those two rather than risk Cruz or Trump being nominated. Of my 20 percent likelihood, I’d say about 15 percentage points are specifically the case where you have Trump, Cruz and one of [Rubio, Christie, Bush, Kasich].</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: You need Trump and Cruz.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Why couldn’t it be Christie, Cruz, Rubio and Trump? Why not four?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: WHAT’S WITH YOUR CRUSH ON CHRIS CHRISTIE, HARRY, ARE YOU A COWBOYS FAN TOO NOW?</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Look, I will put up with a lot of your guff, Nathaniel Read, but not recognizing and appreciating my Buffalo Bills fandom is just disgusting. You should be ashamed. Clare knows this, being from Cleveland. We take pride in our NFL teams that don’t win.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b><span></span>: Underdogs 4 lyfe.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b><span></span>: IDK, I think if Trump is still trucking, the GOP closes its eyes, takes a deep breath and bear hugs Cruz &#8212; that’s why I think 20 percent is too high.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b><span></span>: Do you think the leaked story was a way of them sending a signal to give that big ole bear hug?</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: I think it’s too early.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: But some of the reporting suggests that the GOP is almost as desperate to stop Cruz as it is to stop Trump.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Nate, if both Trump and Cruz are in the race down the road, that means the third person, the establishment candidate, is pretty weak. So they’d be forced.</p><p><b></b><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Yeah. The scenario I’m thinking about is where (say) Rubio is picking up a lot of second and third places and not winning very many states. Maybe he’s benefiting a bit from the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/\">GOP’s delegate rules</a>, too. But he’s not being impressive enough to have earned a mandate from the establishment.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Is predicting the outcome of a contested convention a fool’s errand? Would the establishment have a good shot of taking down Trump?</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: They could rake Trump down a peg or two and still have a contested convention. The way it doesn’t happen is if there&#8217;s an establishment candidate that consolidates support. To expand on that: Trump doesn’t need to “beat” the establishment for there to be a contested convention. There still might be one even if he tops out at 25 percent of the vote. The way you avoid one is if an establishment candidate can get 45-plus percent of the overall vote, which would probably lead to more than 50 percent of the delegates available.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I think they could take Trump out of things, but they would have to accede to some conservative faction demands in the platform.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Yeah, let’s talk Trump. One thing that separates FiveThirtyEight’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/\">position on Trump</a> from a lot other places is that we haven’t necessarily expected his polls to decline immediately. We&#8217;re convinced he&#8217;s very unlikely to win the nomination; that does not mean he&#8217;ll self-combust any time soon.</p><p>There are a lot of barriers to his winning the nomination. One of them is whether his support in polls translates to actual votes. We’ll know a lot more about that after Iowa and New Hampshire. But another is that there’s still good reason to suspect he has a ceiling. And unless his ceiling is high enough to the point he can win a majority of delegates or come close to it, the party is going to do everything in its power to trip him up. Including a brokered convention, if necessary. That’s why I thought Costa’s reporting was so interesting (and insightful). It seemed to imply that the GOP would rather have a contested convention than resign itself to Trump winning.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Yeah, Trump <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">said</a> that himself:</p><blockquote><p>“I’ll be disadvantaged,” he continued. “The deal-making, that’s my advantage. My disadvantage is that I’d be going up against guys who grew up with each other, who know each other intimately and I don’t know who they are, okay? That’s a big disadvantage. &#8230; These kind of guys stay close. They all know each other. They want each other to win.”</p></blockquote><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Well, the contested convention gives them some chance of beating Trump. Trump getting a majority of delegates gives them no chance. And if they think Trump is poison, then they’ll hope for anything to avoid him winning.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: One other thing that people may not know. The GOP’s delegate math is somewhat <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-g-o-p-s-fuzzy-delegate-math/\" target=\"_blank\">fuzzy</a>. In particular, there are various sorts of unbound delegates. This is much clearer in the case of the Democrats with their superdelegates, but there are some equivalent cases within the GOP. That maybe gives the GOP a 5-10 percent fudge factor, depending on how you count different categories of delegates. Usually, that fuzzy math helps the establishment to consolidate around a nominee. But the party could also seek to use those delegates to hold out for a contested convention rather than having to nominate Trump.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: All right, to close, assign probabilities to each of these eventualities. A contested convention would:</p><ol><li>Result in a Trump nomination.</li><li>Result in an establishment nominee who is currently running.</li><li>Result in an establishment nominee not currently running.</li><li>Result in Ted Cruz.</li><li>Destroy the GOP.</li><li>Other.</li></ol><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: No. 5 doesn’t seem to be mutually exclusive with the other choices.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: That’s on purpose.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>:</p><ol><li>10 percent</li><li>35 percent</li><li>20 percent</li><li>35 percent</li></ol><p><b><span></span>harry</b>:</p><ol><li>20 percent</li><li>40 percent</li><li>10 percent</li><li>25 percent</li><li>5 percent</li><li>5 percent</li></ol><p><b>clare.malone</b>:</p><ol><li>I think there is no chance of this.</li><li>I give this a 70 percent probability.</li><li>I don’t think this happens, either.</li><li>30 percent chance</li><li>destroy the GOP &#8212; 50 percent</li></ol><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: It depends greatly on how close Trump is to winning the nomination. If he comes in with only one-third of the delegates, there&#8217;s no way that he gets the nomination. But if he’s at 45 percent, and the convention is a last-ditch effort to prevent him from getting to 51 percent, maybe he still gets over the top.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Nate, you didn’t do Nos. 5 or 6. Clare, you didn&#8217;t answer No. 6.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: What does &#8220;other&#8221; mean?!?</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: I second Nate.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: An asteroid hits. Or, the GOP doesn’t nominate anyone; they just say “fuck it” and go home.</p><p><b>clare.malone</b>: Mercy ruled.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: As long as the Warriors win 73+ games before that, I’d be cool with the asteroid.</p><p><b></b><b><span></span>micah</b>: OK, just do No.5, the GOP is destroyed.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: The brokered convention would be the symptom of that and not the cause. 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As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, deputy editor, politics): A Monmouth survey came out yesterday showing Ted Cruz leading in Iowa — the first poll to show Cruz atop [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=97433&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:14660:\"<p>In this week’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/slack-chat/\">2016 Slack chat</a>, we unpack the potential paths leading out of Iowa, depending on who wins there. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b><span></span>micah </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, deputy editor, politics): A <a href=\"http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/de240398-df23-47b6-8470-91977d38b749.pdf\">Monmouth survey</a> came out yesterday showing Ted Cruz leading in Iowa — the first poll to show Cruz atop the GOP heap there. And overall, Cruz has crept into second place in the <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html\"><span></span>RealClearPolitics Iowa aggregate</a>. So let’s break down the current state of play in Iowa and New Hampshire. To get us going: What happens if Cruz wins Iowa? Let’s say the Monmouth survey is dead on, and Cruz finishes first, Donald Trump second, Marco Rubio third and Ben Carson fourth. How do the dominoes fall?</p><p><b><span></span>harry </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\"><span></span>Harry Enten</a>, senior political writer): First off, I think the Monmouth poll is a very good sign for Cruz. I’ve <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-ted-cruz-ted-cruz/\">written about Cruz’s potential strength</a><span></span> before, and a win in Iowa would put him on the national map. Further, unlike past Iowa winners such as Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, Cruz’s <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-caucus\">numbers in New Hampshire</a> are not terrible relative to the non-Trump candidates. It’s conceivable that Cruz could launch out of Iowa and not get tripped up in New Hampshire.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: He could win New Hampshire? He’s not really the type of candidate that typically wins New Hampshire, though, right?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver </b>(<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, editor in chief): The tricky thing is that the bounce a candidate gets out of Iowa depends as much on the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-iowa-polls-predict-new-hampshire-results/\">media’s expectations</a> as how well he or she performs in an absolute sense. So, hypothetically, if Cruz is polling at 33 percent by the time we get to the caucuses, and he wins Iowa but with 23 percent of the vote instead, he might not get much of a bounce.</p><p>Leaving that aside, I don’t think a win in New Hampshire would be completely off the table for Cruz.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: I’d point to our five-ring circus that shows Cruz sitting on the overlap of the tea-party and Christian-conservative wings of the party:</p><figure id=\"attachment_95896\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-95896\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-gop-five-ring-circus-jindal.png?w=575\" alt=\"silver-gop-five-ring-circus-jindal\"   /></figure><p><span></span><span></span>As opposed to some past Iowa winners, like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were more exclusively Christian conservative candidates.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Yeah. There are plenty of tea party voters up in New Hampshire. It’s definitely <i>not</i> a good state for outright evangelical candidates, but Cruz is more than that and has more than a little bit of Pat Buchanan in him too.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Cruz sounds pretty formidable according to you two.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Well, it depends on Iowa.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Does Cruz NEED Iowa?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: I don’t think Cruz wins New Hampshire if he doesn’t win Iowa. It’s certainly possible that Cruz wins Iowa, someone else wins New Hampshire, and then he comes back to win the nomination later in the race. Still, that’s contingent on him winning Iowa. So my answer is “yes,” to a first approximation.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: And further, it’s quite possible that Cruz wins Iowa and not New Hampshire. Say we have a close finish between Cruz and a rising Rubio in Iowa, then Rubio could easily win New Hampshire. Or if Chris Christie, whose <a href=\"http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia11242015_trends_Ic344mgh.pdf\">favorable ratings</a> have been climbing in Iowa, does better than expected even if he doesn’t finish in the top two, then he could win in New Hampshire.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Harry is basically working for the Christie campaign at this point.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: To me, there are four basic cases in Iowa: Cruz wins, Trump wins, Rubio wins, and Carson/Huckabee/Santorum wins.</p><p><span></span>Likewise, there are four basic cases in New Hampshire: Cruz wins, Trump wins, Rubio wins, and Christie/Bush/Kasich wins.</p><p>Which would yield 16 possible scenarios, except some are implausible — I highly doubt that Rubio wins Iowa but Cruz wins New Hampshire, for instance.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Yeah, and <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-republicans-and-polls-enable-donald-trump/\">the reactions</a><span></span> to Trump’s proposed ban of all Muslim immigrants and tourists really threw into relief who’s making a play in Iowa vs. New Hampshire. Christie/Bush/Kasich hit Trump much harder than Carson/Huckabee/Santorum.</p><p>Alright, let’s take the next scenario: Trump wins Iowa.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: BOOM!</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Who is that worse for? (Besides Nate.)</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: DOOM! Seriously though, we’ve been <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/\">saying for months</a> that Trump could win Iowa or another early state. What we’ve said is that he’s quite unlikely to win the nomination. And he’d still probably be an underdog conditional on winning Iowa, although that depends on a lot of things.</p><p>What’s clear, though, is that if Trump gets a lot of people to turn up for him and vote in Iowa, that’s an epistemological game changer.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: That should be the name of your next book, Nate: “Epistemological Game Change.”</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Right now, there’s some reason to wonder about what <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/\">Trump’s standing in the polls really means</a><span></span>. Is it just drive-by voters gawking at the accident? Is it people recalling his name because he’s the only candidate they’re hearing about? Is it &#8220;unlikely voters&#8221; who will not turn out to vote in the primary or caucus? Or is it actual, genuine popularity that translates into votes? The media has tended to presume the latter — support in the polls is equivalent to votes — and has done an insufficient job of exploring alternative hypotheses, in my view.</p><p>But if Trump actually does get lots of people to vote for him — especially if he’s up toward say 30-35 percent of the vote instead of 20-25 percent — that changes a lot.</p><p><span></span>He&#8217;d still have some major hurdles to overcome. Other candidates will probably gain more as the field is winnowed. And the party will be doing everything in its power to stop him. But it’s a different ballgame at that point.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: OK, back to my question: Who is Trump winning in Iowa worse for?</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: I think it’s Chris Christie.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Explain.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Well, I think Trump pulls from a similar moderate, macho-guy vote.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: Harry, you seem to be living in a fantasyland where Christie is a leading candidate. He’s got a shot, but it’s a bankshot.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: It’s a bank off a Trump collapse in Iowa, right?</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Well, who do YOU think it’s worse for? You got fingers. You got a computer. Speak, my young sir. Speak!</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Well, it depends on how the candidates line up behind Trump.</p><p>If it’s like Trump 30, Cruz 20, Carson 15, Rubio 8, that creates a huge opening for someone to emerge as the Great Establishment Hope. Which could be Christie, for all we know.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: One could also argue, Nate, that such a finish could demonstrate that the best the establishment can hope for is a candidate not named Trump. Therefore, there’s a rally around Cruz.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: But here we get back to how Cruz performs relative to expectations. And my guess is that those expectations will be fairly high. I doubt that Monmouth will be the last poll to show him ahead in Iowa. The narrative that comes out of Trump 30, Cruz 20, Carson 15, Rubio 8 is probably HOLY SHIT THE ESTABLISHMENT REALLY IS IN DISARRAY!!!!! Whether the establishment resigns itself to Cruz at that point or looks to Christie or Bush or Kasich instead, or starts stalking Mitt Romney, or even sticks with Rubio for want of alternatives, is hard to say.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Next, let’s consider a more establishment-friendly eventuality: Rubio wins Iowa. Let’s say Cruz finishes second and Trump third.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Then Rubio’s probably the nominee, and all of the fuss over the past six months will look pretty silly.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: And then Rubio will sweep the field. This is 2004 Democratic primary all over again.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b><span></span>: I think you’re both too confident in that. New Hampshire can get quite contrarian; let’s say Rubio wins Iowa, then Kasich/Christie/Jeb wins New Hampshire.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: Well, first, Kasich or Christie would have to make a lot of gains in the New Hampshire polls between now and February. Right now, they’re actually a pinch behind Rubio in New Hampshire, and he’s only going to gain ground if he wins Iowa.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Well, I DO expect the polls to change a lot between now and February</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Sure, I do too. But that could put you in a GOP 2000 scenario. Rubio, the establishment-backed front-runner, wins Iowa. Christie &#8212; or whoever plays the role of John McCain &#8212; wins New Hampshire and a few liberal states. But it shapes up to be Rubio’s nomination.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b><span></span>: Let me also add that in 2000, George W. Bush had led in Iowa for a VERY long time. If anything, Steve Forbes outperformed and Bush underperformed in Iowa. Also, McCain led in the New Hampshire polls. And Bush still went on to win the whole thing with some ease.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: Yeah, Rubio would have to win Iowa but miss expectations.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: I’m not sure there’s enough room to the left of Rubio for someone like Christie in a world where Rubio looks formidable coming out of Iowa. I know that Rubio is a really conservative guy, but the GOP is a really conservative party. There are enough votes for someone like Christie in New Hampshire, but not nationally. Instead, they need Rubio to disappoint so the establishment starts casting about for alternatives.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: Right. I think there’s a consistency here: It’s almost as much about expectations as it is about the actual result in Iowa.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: OK, a final, catch-all scenario:</p><p><span></span>What if Carson/Huckabee/Santorum wins Iowa? Does that make you re-evaluate those candidates? Or does it make you think Iowa will be a one-off, sort of like it was when Huckabee won in it in 2008?</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: I think this is the best scenario for Christie.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b><span></span>: CHRISTIE!</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: It’s a total reset and none of those candidates you mentioned could carry New Hampshire.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: I think, given the history of how Huckabee and Santorum didn’t make all that much out of their Iowa wins, the media would tend to treat Iowa as a mulligan. Or not a mulligan exactly, but I think they’d look a lot at the second-place finisher. A finish like Carson-Rubio-Cruz-Trump is a pretty good outcome for Rubio, for instance.</p><p>The exception is that I don’t think Trump would get a lot of credit for finishing in second place, given the expectations he’s set for himself.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b>: It wasn’t for Mitt Romney in 2008: Finishing second in Iowa didn’t work. I think the question is where the polls are at the beginning of January. That probably gives us a good idea of what the expectations will eventually be for Feb. 1.</p><p><b><span></span>micah</b>: To close: To win the nomination, do you have to win either Iowa or New Hampshire?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: The short answer is “no.” The medium-length answer is &#8220;yes, unless you’re the establishment’s leading hope despite not winning either state.” Usually, some candidate who’s acceptable to party elites wins Iowa or New Hampshire, if not both — and then the party consolidates around him and makes his path easier. Other party-backed alternatives drop out, meanwhile. But if, say, Carson wins Iowa and Trump wins New Hampshire, the party certainly isn’t going to give up the fight.</p><p><b><span></span>harry</b><span></span>: Right. Remember Bill Clinton didn’t win either Iowa or New Hampshire in 1992. That’s because Iowa was won by Tom Harkin, who was from there. Paul Tsongas won New Hampshire. The party just waited for Clinton to win a Southern primary, and he was off to the races. If any one of the “acceptable” candidates wins Iowa or New Hampshire, then you have to win there to win. 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The three remaining Democratic candidates immediately condemned it. So did several Republican candidates &#8212; Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham &#8212; who are running in the New [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=97377&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:9151:\"<p>Donald Trump’s probably <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/12/07/donald-trump-calls-for-banning-muslims-from-entering-u-s/\">unconstitutional</a><a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"19\" href=\"#fn-19\"><sup id=\"ss-19\">19</sup></a> <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/12/07/donald-trump-calls-for-total-and-complete-shutdown-of-muslims-entering-the-united-states/\">proposal</a> to ban Muslims from entering the United States was soon denounced by … <a href=\"http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/12/07/2016-candidates-astonished-by-trumps-muslim-ban-proposal/\">exactly who you might expect</a> to denounce it. The three remaining Democratic candidates immediately condemned it. So did several Republican candidates &#8212; Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham &#8212; who are running in the New Hampshire “lane” of the GOP primary, hoping to cultivate more moderate voters.</p><p>The more conservative Republican candidates were slower on the draw. Marco Rubio waited three hours before <a href=\"https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/674019172800704512\">saying</a> (on Twitter) that he disagreed with Trump. Ted Cruz’s and Ben Carson’s campaigns <a href=\"https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/673980468849606656\">clarified their candidates&#8217; positions</a> rather than saying much about Trump’s. Mike Huckabee, as of early Tuesday, still hadn’t commented.</p><p>It’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-muslim-religion/\">not obvious</a> what Republican voters will think of Trump’s proposal &#8212; no pollster, as far as we can find, has directly asked about a “<a href=\"https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-statement-on-preventing-muslim-immigration\">total and complete</a>” ban on Muslims entering the U.S.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"20\" href=\"#fn-20\"><sup id=\"ss-20\">20</sup></a> Trump, however, evidently thinks his proposal is good politics: He <a href=\"https://twitter.com/TheBrodyFile/status/673992858119090176\">retweeted</a> a claim from Christian Broadcasting Network correspondent David Brody that the plan could “give [Trump] a boost with evangelicals,” a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gop-establishment-may-need-religious-voters-to-stop-donald-trump/\">key group</a> in the Iowa caucuses.</p><p>Cruz, Rubio and the other campaigns are arguably acting in their narrow best interest. Cruz’s campaign has been “drafting” off Trump’s for months, staying <a href=\"https://twitter.com/mattklewis/status/674020756657958912\">as close to it as possible</a> without quite colliding with it. (It seems to be working: Cruz has been gaining in the polls, <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html\">especially in Iowa</a>.) Rubio has also been slowly but steadily improving in the polls and <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/\">gradually adding endorsements</a> to his tally. Kasich, Bush and Christie, who are struggling everywhere but New Hampshire, have much less to lose.</p><p>What’s more perplexing is the reluctance of Republican Party leaders to speak out against Trump. Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan <a href=\"https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/673996640357863425\">declined to comment</a> on Trump’s anti-Muslim proposal, for instance. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus hadn’t issued any statement as of late Monday night. And of the past three Republican nominees &#8212; George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney &#8212; only McCain had <a href=\"https://twitter.com/kristinapet/status/674003954368446464\">said anything</a>.</p><p>Perhaps these Republicans are waiting to craft the right language &#8212; Romney, in particular, has <a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/16/politics/mitt-romney-donald-trump-comments/\">had no trouble</a> criticizing Trump before. Or perhaps they think any such statements wouldn’t be helpful &#8212; or could even backfire, given the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-republicans-really-are-in-disarray/\">distrust of the establishment that the GOP base</a> has. It’s not clear that the GOP has anything in the way of a living elder statesman or stateswoman who has unimpeachable credentials to speak up about Trump. In a <a href=\"http://www.gallup.com/poll/180365/barack-obama-hillary-clinton-extend-run-admired.aspx\">poll</a> conducted by Gallup last year, the most admired male politician among Republican voters was … Barack Obama, who was chosen by 8 percent of Republicans. (George W. Bush was next, at 3 percent.) Condoleezza Rice (9 percent), Hillary Clinton (5 percent) and Sarah Palin (4 percent) were the most admired female politicians among Republicans.</p><p>But it’s also possible that the Republican reluctance to criticize Trump stems from a surfeit of short-term thinking &#8212; combined with a possible misreading of the polls. Several times so far in the campaign, we’ve witnessed the following cycle:</p><ol><li style=\"font-weight:400;\">Trump says something offensive or ludicrous.</li><li style=\"font-weight:400;\">Some pundits loudly proclaim that it could bring about the end of Trump’s campaign.</li><li style=\"font-weight:400;\">Instead, Trump’s position remains steady or even improved in ballot-test polls.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"21\" href=\"#fn-21\"><sup id=\"ss-21\">21</sup></a></li><li style=\"font-weight:400;\">The same pundits therefore conclude that Trump is indestructible and impervious to criticism.</li></ol><p>This is not a ridiculous interpretation. But there are some potential problems with it.</p><p>One is that most Republicans are <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/\">still not paying all that much attention</a> to the campaign. Some controversies that garner wall-to-wall coverage from the political press may only reach <a href=\"https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/666264396428156928\">one-quarter to one-fifth</a> of Americans at home. That mutes the impact of most things the candidates are doing. And any actual effects can easily be overwhelmed by noise in the polling, making it hard to make inferences about causality.</p><p>The second big problem is that in a field that still has 14 candidates, more media coverage &#8212; <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-the-worlds-greatest-troll/\">even negative media coverage</a> &#8212; potentially helps a candidate to differentiate himself and thereby improve his position on the ballot test. In general, there has been a <a href=\"http://www.cjr.org/analysis/the_medias_trump_conundrum.php\">strong correlation</a> between how well a candidate is performing on the ballot test and how much media coverage he’s receiving, although the causality is hard to determine. Trump seems to <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-running-a-perpetual-attention-machine/\">understand this</a>; indeed, he seems to issue his most controversial remarks and proposals precisely at moments of perceived vulnerability.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"22\" href=\"#fn-22\"><sup id=\"ss-22\">22</sup></a></p><p>Put another way, the media’s obsession over the daily fluctuations in the polls &#8212; even when the polls <a href=\"https://twitter.com/pastfrontrunner\">don’t predict very much</a> about voter behavior and <a href=\"https://twitter.com/HawkinsUSA/status/673986098268405761\">don’t necessarily reflect</a> people who are actually likely to vote &#8212; may help enable Trump. Republicans are afraid to criticize Trump in part because it rarely produces instant gratification in a “<a href=\"http://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2009/04/winning-the-dawn-017268\">win-the-morning</a>” political culture that keeps score based on polls.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"23\" href=\"#fn-23\"><sup id=\"ss-23\">23</sup></a> Without seeing any repercussions, Trump goes farther out on a limb, <a href=\"http://www.mackinac.org/7504\">shifting the window of acceptable discourse</a> along with him and making it harder to rebuke him the next time around.</p><p><strong>UPDATE </strong>(Dec. 8, 1:35 p.m.): Although a Trump spokeswoman initially said the ban would include <a href=\"http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/262348-trump-calls-for-shutdown-of-muslims-entering-us\">American citizens traveling abroad</a>, Trump <a href=\"http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-stands-barring-muslims-criticism/story?id=35640361\" target=\"_blank\">said in an interview </a>on Tuesday morning that citizens would be able to travel freely.</p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=97377&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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Our staff college football fans sat down to talk through the scenarios on Slack. The transcript below has been lightly edited. blythe (Blythe Terrell, general editor): OK, so the conference championships are this weekend. The real test of our new College Football Playoff [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=96931&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:14:\"Blythe Terrell\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12584:\"<p>That&#8217;s the big question going into this Sunday&#8217;s College Football Playoff selection. Our staff college football fans sat down to talk through the scenarios on Slack. The transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>blythe (</b><a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/blythe-terrell/\"><b>Blythe Terrell</b></a><b>, general editor):</b> OK, so the conference championships are this weekend. The real test of our new College Football Playoff model is IMMINENT.</p><p><b>natesilver (</b><a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\"><b>Nate Silver</b></a><b>, editor-in-chief):</b> Well, it’s not much of a test, since the scenarios are either pretty obvious or the model’s like all ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯.</p><p><b>andrewflowers (</b><a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/andrew-flowers/\"><b>Andrew Flowers</b></a><b>, quantitative editor): </b>Yeah, if Alabama and Clemson cruise to win their conference titles, this is an open-and-shut case: They both get into the playoff, alongside Oklahoma and the Big Ten winner. But if one or both lose, all hell will break loose.</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>Probably where the model most disagrees with the conventional wisdom is in thinking Clemson might still have a pretty good shot — even with a loss.</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>Exactly, @natesilver. That makes the ACC championship the most interesting game to watch. If Clemson loses, the playoff committee has a difficult job. Will UNC get in? Or could Stanford take their place if they win the Pac-12?</p><p>Or will Clemson sneak in despite losing?!</p><p><b>blythe: </b>Part of me hopes it gets exciting (since I’ve got no team in the game). I want something weird to happen. And part of the model is trying to predict how the committee members will think, right?</p><p><b>natesilver:</b> Yeah, the whole point of the model is that it’s trying to replicate human thinking. So since everyone else is all ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ about what happens if Clemson or Alabama loses, maybe that means it’s right in some sense!</p><p>What it can do, though, is think an extra step or two ahead. For instance, it recognized that Stanford still had an outside path to making it into the playoff even after Stanford&#8217;s second loss to Oregon a few weeks ago. Why? Because it knew that Stanford could potentially beat Notre Dame, then win the Pac-12 — and that might look pretty good to the committee.</p><p>Likewise, it recognized that a Big 12 team that got hot was likely to leapfrog Notre Dame — and it turned out that Oklahoma did exactly that, even before Notre Dame lost to Stanford.</p><p><b>blythe:</b> Stanford sneaking in would make SOMEONE here happy (@allison)</p><p><b>allison (</b><a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/allison-mccann/\"><b>Allison McCann</b></a><b>, visual journalist): </b>AND WE DID BEAT NOTRE DAME!</p><p><b>blythe: </b>Oh, yeah, what ever happened to the Irish?</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>I get emails from Notre Dame fans asking for their playoff odds <i>if they had beaten Stanford</i>.</p><p><b>blythe: </b>Everyone is on a quest for hope, Andrew.</p><p><b>natesilver:</b> If there were a six-team playoff, <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/expand-the-college-football-playoff/\">like there should be</a>, Notre Dame would be a bubble team right now. But maybe let’s get back to the cases at hand?</p><p><b>allison: </b>Stanford is sitting with a 13 percent chance of making the playoff, but they almost certainly need a big-time loss from someone else this weekend, right?</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>That’s right @allison — Alabama and/or Clemson need to lose for the Cardinal to get in.</p><p><b>blythe: </b>So, the Big Ten winner gets in. And Oklahoma is a lock. That’s where we stand, right? Those are the two knowns?</p><p><b>natesilver:</b> And that Alabama and Clemson are locks if they win. So there could be no drama at all, if the favorites win out.</p><p><b>blythe:</b> Right. So the interesting scenarios …</p><p><b>allison:</b> Yeah, forget favorites. Give us all the drama.</p><p><b>blythe:</b> If Clemson loses and Alabama wins, then what?</p><p><b>allison:</b> Does that make Ohio State next in line? (It’s NOT Stanford, which is garbage.)</p><p><b>andrewflowers:</b> Our model is high on Clemson even if they lose; they have the highest odds to get in, at 42 percent (assuming Alabama wins). But the Pac-12 game really matters here. If Stanford beats USC, they might get in.</p><p><b>allison: </b>I am completely unashamed of my favoritism here. Stanford could be more likely than Ohio State to make it in if they win that conference title! <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/college-football-week-14-preview/\">THAT’S WHAT ANDREW WROTE!</a></p><p><b>natesilver:</b> Yeah, let’s unpack a few things here. First, the model thinks that four teams have a credible case — Stanford, Clemson, UNC and Ohio State. It likes Stanford’s chances a little better than UNC and Ohio State — <i>if</i> Stanford wins. And it puts Clemson right up there with Stanford, in defiance of the conventional wisdom I guess.</p><p>But when I think through the politics of the committee’s decision, I like Stanford’s chances a little better than the model does.</p><p><b>allison: </b>Because of Condi???</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>Think of it like this: if Clemson loses, they can point out they’ve played a more challenging schedule than UNC, and had a signature win over Notre Dame, too. And, relative to Stanford, they’d have fewer losses despite not winning their conference. It’s a tough call for the committee.</p><p>But the ultimate nightmare is if Clemson <i>and</i> Stanford lose. Will that pave the way for Ohio State to sneak in? Don’t sleep on the Buckeyes!</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>@allison: I think the committee starts from the premise that it doesn’t have much respect for UNC and thinks they’d get demolished if they were in the playoff. So it wants to find an excuse to leave them out. But it has trouble taking Clemson over UNC when UNC just beat Clemson. How about Ohio State? Maybe, but they’re not a conference champion either — and frankly, if you’re going to take a one-loss nonchampion, Clemson’s resume is at least as good as Ohio State’s. That leaves Stanford. They’re a politically correct choice, having won their conference title and having played a much better schedule than UNC.</p><p><b>allison: </b>And because of Condi ;-).</p><p>Okay fine, Andrew, I’ll go with you and consider losses from both Clemson and Stanford. You’ve written that our model consistently likes the Buckeyes more than the committee — why?</p><p><b>andrewflowers:</b> Would the committee really pick UNC over Ohio State if the Tar Heels beat Clemson and Stanford also loses? That to me is the existential question. Lots of $$$ is involved in these selections. I don’t mean to sound too conspiratorial, but with Ohio State’s national football fanbase, it’d be awfully tempting to pick them.</p><p><b>blythe:</b> Let’s look at another scenario. What if the Tide get rolled and the Tigers beat the Tar Heels? Then you have Florida as the SEC champ over ‘Bama. What does that do? Could a two-loss Gators team show up in the playoff?</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>Um, no.</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>Ohio State’s a fascinating case, @allison. Because, remember, the model’s job is to replicate human thinking. And it thinks humans should really like Ohio State for some pretty basic reasons. One-loss power conference team. Defending national champion. (That’s factored in implicitly in way the model uses Elo ratings, which carry over slightly from season to season.) Coming off a HUGE win against Michigan. Only loss was against another very good team, Michigan State.</p><p>But the narrative that developed around Ohio State was poor. I actually thought the Ezekiel Elliott comments after the Michigan State loss might have hurt them — it made it seem like they had blown their chance instead of reminding voters that this was a very good football team that had a chance to redeem itself against UM.</p><p><b>blythe: </b>That Florida State loss was pretty brutal. So no Florida. But how does that change the picture? A ‘Bama loss and Clemson win?</p><p><b>andrewflowers:</b> A ‘Bama loss is less of a headache than a Clemson one. Sorry Florida fans, but if you win, the SEC is getting shut out. Stanford is in pole position to make it if they win the Pac-12; and if they slip up, then Ohio State is waiting in the wings.</p><p>To be specific — Stanford has a 61 percent shot at the playoff if Alabama loses, Clemson wins and the Cardinal beat USC.</p><p><b>blythe:</b> But ‘Bama is pretty unlikely to lose, right?</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>Florida would have to DEMOLISH Alabama. If they win 42-3 or something … <i>and</i> Stanford loses … <i>and</i> the committee decides it really prefers conference champions after all, they might get a look.</p><p><b>andrewflowers:</b> Very unlikely, @blythe. They’re 78 percent favorites.</p><p><b>natesilver:</b> And having seen a bunch of Florida over the past few weeks … I’m not taking the 22 percent side of that bet.</p><p><b>blythe: </b>OK, so the final scenario: If ‘Bama and Clemson both lose, then what? MAXIMUM CHAOS!</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>In this nightmare scenario, Stanford is a great bet if they win the Pac-12 (62 percent). But, honestly, it gets messy <i>real</i> fast. Five teams possibly competing for two spots.</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>Here’s something interesting, though. According to the model, Ohio State would rather have Alabama lose and Clemson <i>win</i> than both Alabama and Clemson lose.</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>But don’t count out just-beaten Clemson, either: They’re right with the Cardinal at 59 percent. And that’s right, @natesilver — Buckeye fans should be rooting hard for Clemson.</p><p><b>blythe: </b>This seems like the real ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ situation.</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>They should be rooting for Clemson only if Alabama loses. If Alabama wins, though, they need Clemson to lose to have any shot at all. It’s like some weird prisoner’s dilemma.</p><p><b>blythe: </b>As college football should be.</p><p><b>natesilver:</b> But the thinking here is that if both Alabama and Clemson lose, the committee would resolve its UNC-Clemson “problem” by letting <i>both</i> teams in. Especially if Stanford loses, too.</p><p><b>andrewflowers:</b> One last thing: We’d be remiss without mentioning how @natesilver rigged the model to favor Michigan State. The Spartans are obviously in if they beat undefeated Iowa; and vice versa for the Hawkeyes. Zzzzz…</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>Ha! The main question is how far Sparty will move up into the top four with a win.</p><p>Excuse me — WHEN they win. Weirdly, it might be best for them to stay at No. 4 — because most computer rankings think No. 1 Clemson isn’t as strong as No. 2 Alabama or No. 3 Oklahoma.</p><p><b>andrewflowers: </b>BTW, a strong Michigan State win makes Ohio State look good. Another thing for Buckeye fans to root for.</p><p><b>allison:</b> Should I [Stanford fans] be rooting for a Michigan State or Iowa? What’s my prisoner’s dilemma here?</p><p><b>natesilver: </b>Yeah, that could help Ohio State a bunch. Historically, the times when we’ve seen two teams from the same conference rank in the coaches poll or AP top four is when the second team’s only loss came to the team ranked ahead of it. Which works for Ohio State is Sparty wins, but not if it’s Iowa instead.</p><p>So you should be rooting for Iowa, @allison, because it makes Ohio State’s case weaker.</p><p><b>blythe:</b> So basically, the likeliest situation is that ‘Bama and Clemson win their conference titles and everything is very boring (or great, depending on your team preference) with Oklahoma, Iowa/Michigan State, Clemson and ‘Bama. 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What A Joke!\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:119:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:127:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Wed, 02 Dec 2015 12:01:28 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:4:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13:\"2016 Election\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:23:\"2016 Republican Primary\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12:\"Donald Trump\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Slack Chat\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=96840\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:564:\"We&#8217;re talking Donald Trump &#8212; again &#8212; in this week&#8217;s 2016 Slack chat, but with a thespian twist. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): OK, we’re going to do some role-playing today. We’ve been very skeptical of Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination here at [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=96840&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:16256:\"<p>We&#8217;re talking Donald Trump &#8212; again &#8212; in this week&#8217;s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/slack-chat/\">2016 Slack chat</a>, but with a thespian twist. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b><span></span>micah</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, politics editor): OK, we’re going to do some role-playing today. We’ve been very skeptical of <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/\">Donald Trump’s chances of winning</a> the Republican nomination here at FiveThirtyEight. To really stress-test that position, <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, our editor in chief, is going to be his normal self (a Trump skeptic); <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\"><span></span>Harry Enten</a>, our senior political writer, is going to pretend he’s a Democratic-leaning political scientist who thinks the Republican Party is in a such a mood that Trump could win (we’ll call him “PhDemocrat”), and I’m going to play the role of a die-hard Trump fan named “Trumpfan1959” (drawing inspiration from the many Tweets and Facebook comments his supporters have sent us).</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b>: Nate, you always talk about small sample sizes, and there is perhaps no better case of a small size than presidential nomination races. We have had only 12 open primaries in which the “Party Decides” hypothesis &#8212; that the party establishment, including elected officials and party operatives, has a lot of control over who wins the nomination &#8212; has supposedly held true. So tell me why we should be putting so many chips on a theory with so little data backing it up?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b><span></span>: Well, PhDemocrat, if you wanted to argue that Trump’s chances are higher than zero, I’d agree with you. But the conventional wisdom isn’t just saying that Trump has a chance. It’s increasingly seeing him as one of the MOST LIKELY nominees. Betting markets — as good a quantification of the conventional wisdom as you’ll find on short notice — have him at 22 percent. Higher than Cruz. About twice where they have Jeb Bush. Trump is four times more likely to be the nominee than Christie is, they’re saying. I think 22 percent is too high.</p><p><span></span>It’s also significant that not only have Trump-like candidates not won, but they haven’t come particularly close to winning.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b>: What is a Trump-like candidate? Part of the reason Trump-like candidates haven’t won is because they haven’t run. In most presidential primary campaigns, it’s only people who have held elected office who have run. The only examples of candidates like Trump running I can think of are Steve Forbes in 1996 and 2000, Herman Cain in 2012, and maybe Ben Fernandez in 1980. (Granted, Fernandez had experience in government.)</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: Listen, if either of you ever left your East Coast liberal hangouts, you’d realize that there haven’t been <i>any</i> Trump-like candidates. This is someone who built a multi-billionaire dollar empire. He led a hugely successful reality show. He wins. We’ve never had a candidate like that, so the normal rules don’t apply.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: By a Trump-like candidate, guys, I mean someone who openly defies his party and whose party is <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/us/politics/wary-of-donald-trump-gop-leaders-are-caught-in-a-standoff.html?smid=tw-share\">openly rooting against him</a>. It’s one thing to say that the party chooses its nominee. That’s not always true. But can the party prevent someone from hijacking its nomination when the consequences for it would be disastrous? My guess is that it can.</p><p>Also, we do have some empirical data on how non-politicians perform in campaigns. It’s not uncommon to see them in U.S. Senate races, for instance. And the answer is that they tend to perform poorly. They often fade down the stretch run — look at Meg Whitman in 2010, for example — because of a tendency to commit gaffes and a lack of organization on the ground-game side of things.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: Trump has committed <a href=\"http://nypost.com/2015/09/06/six-campaigning-gaffes-that-only-trump-can-get-away-with/\">plenty of “gaffes”</a> — at least, according to you people — and he still leads every poll.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b><span></span>: Yes, Nate, but they also win. David Perdue won in Georgia in 2014, for example, and he survived both a competitive primary and a general election campaign. And Perdue also committed some gaffes. What I hear from you is a lot of guessing.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: You guys are arguing against a straw man. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win. But it’s unlikely — less likely than betting markets and the conventional wisdom hold.</p><p>Also, there’s an important difference between a one-off election like a Senate or gubernatorial primary and a presidential nomination. In a presidential race, voters and the party establishment have time to read and react. You’ve had candidates like Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanan win individual states before, but they haven’t been able to sustain their momentum.</p><p>Will an onslaught of super PAC ads against Trump hurt him or help him? I dunno! But the party has <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/\">a lot of time to experiment</a> until it finds the right formula.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: It seems to me that you have no idea what’s going to happen — maybe there’s zero empirical evidence that candidates like Trump can win, but there’s just as much evidence that candidates like Trump CAN’T win. Trump is dominating the race, media and polls. How is that not the best position to be in?</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Let me turn this around a bit. You both seem to be placing a lot of emphasis on Trump’s polls. I don’t think they mean very much.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: If Marco Rubio were winning, you’d be citing the polls all the time. You just don’t like what they show.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Dude, this isn’t complicated. Go back and look at past polling frontrunners at this stage of the campaign. They have a poor track record. By contrast, go back and look at who was leading in general elections in late October. They have a very good track record.</p><p>The point of being empirical isn’t that you love polls. It’s that you learn from experience, and our experience tells us that polls aren’t reliable predictors at this stage of the race.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b><span></span>: 1980: Reagan led in polls and won. 1984: Mondale led in polls and won. 1988: Bush led in polls and won. 1996: Dole led in polls and won. 2000: Bush and Gore led in polls and both won. 2012: Romney was top of polls for most of primary and won. That’s seven out of 12 times the person who led in the polls at this point has won. That’s greater than 50 percent. And it’s far greater than the chance you give to Trump at this point.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Most of those candidates had far more of the vote in polls than Trump’s 25-30 percent.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b>: Romney didn’t.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: But Romney had more room to grow because he had establishment support and was not a divisive figure within his party. It’s those qualities — the voters and elites consolidating around a broadly acceptable nominee — that historically allow candidates to zoom up from 25 percent to 50 percent or whatever once they win a few states.</p><p>But more importantly, voters aren’t paying a lot of attention. Only 20 percent or so of the voters in Iowa have come to a final decision. Half the voters in New Hampshire won’t decide until the final week of the campaign.</p><p>BTW, the same conventional wisdom that is increasingly keen on Trump’s chances also insisted for months that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was in disarray and that Joe Biden would enter the race.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: I don’t have much faith in that self-reported “when I decided” data.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b>: Yeah, keep in mind that some <a href=\"http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll\">30 percent of voters</a> in the 2012 general election claimed they didn’t decide whom to vote for until the last two months of the campaign. Twenty percent said they waited until the final month. But you and I both know that there are VERY few real swing voters deciding that late.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: It’s interesting to me that more legitimate sorts of Internet polls, which also have trouble drawing a random sample, show Trump doing a lot better than traditional random-digit-dial polls do.</p><p>As Harry said to me earlier today, <a href=\"http://www.selzerco.com/\"><span></span>Ann Selzer</a>, who has as good a track record as anyone, doesn’t have Trump doing all that well in her Iowa polls. And she was the one who caught Obama’s surge of new voters in 2008.</p><p><span></span>You guys are also neglecting something else. Some voters may be coughing up Trump’s name in polls because he’s the only candidate they’ve been hearing about. The media has given his campaign more coverage than literally all the other Republicans combined.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: So why aren’t you citing that as a Trump advantage? He knows how to draw attention to himself. You don’t think Rand Paul or Lindsey Graham would kill to have that skill?</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b><span></span>: I’d still like to note that Nate, who prominently featured that exit poll data, should acknowledge that even though exit polls are good, they are not gospel, especially when it comes to people self-reporting when they decided. And I should note that even Ann Selzer gets it wrong once in a while. She had John Kerry <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#ia\">carrying Iowa</a><span></span> in 2004. That was wrong. She had the establishment candidate, Terry Branstad, <a href=\"http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100607/NEWS09/6070323/-1/GETPUBLISHED03SCRIPTS/Iowa-Poll-Branstad-camp-covers-most-sectors-of-GOP/\">winning</a> the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary by 28 percentage points. He won by only 10 points. She’s good, but she isn’t perfect.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: Because coverage will probably tend to even out a bit as we get closer to the election. Also, voters will draw more from local news sources in addition to the national ones.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>: This is all starting to sound very pundit-y.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: It was interesting that we saw Trump’s numbers wobble a bit after the first couple of debates. Also interesting that he seems to be a bit lower in Iowa, where voters are paying more attention, than everywhere else.</p><p><span></span>PhDemocrat, no pollster is perfect. Nor are we! But you and TrumpFan1959 are creating a moving target.</p><p>You say: WOW! LOOK AT TRUMP’S POLLZ!</p><p>I say: Polls don’t mean much at this stage and aren’t very predictive.</p><p>So then you say: you can’t prove they’re NOT predictive. Which is a much different standard.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>:</p><figure id=\"attachment_96844\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 275px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-96844\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/brady_trump.jpeg?w=575\" alt=\"brady_trump\"   /></figure><p>nuff said.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b>: Hold on a second. Hold on a second. No, what we’d say is that there is a strong correlation. Heck, there’s a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-no-perfect-way-to-sort-the-candidates-for-a-primary-debate/\">strong correlation</a> between polls from the first half of the year before the election and primary results. The polls aren’t perfect, but what we’d say is that more often than not the polling front-runner does win. And for you then to say, it’s only a 5 percent chance &#8212; that, I think, is wrong.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: A polling front-runner wins more often than not when the front-runner is at 50 percent in the polls, like Hillary Clinton is now. But Trump’s at 25-30 percent nationally and a bit less than that in Iowa. Also, if you built a simple model with polls and endorsements, it would not have Trump doing all that well.</p><p>I guess what it comes down to is that there’s a difference between saying “EVERYTHING LOOKS GREAT FOR TRUMP” and “THERE’S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE RACE.&#8221;</p><p>I emphatically agree with the second statement, not the former.</p><p>Trump doesn’t have the profile of a traditional nominee. Both in the sense of his running an anti-establishment campaign, and in terms of his metrics. Polling at 25-30 percent doesn’t mean all that much unless you have a lot of other things going for you too, which will allow you to continue adding support as you move through the process.</p><p>HOWEVER, none of the other candidates looks all that great either.</p><p>Rubio has a lot of upside potential, but it’s not like he’s sitting there with hundreds of endorsements. Cruz could be a perfect bridge between the establishment and insurgent sides of the party, or get the worst of both worlds — maybe he doesn’t win establishment backing either, but he can’t fire voters up as much as Trump does.</p><p><b><span></span>PhDemocrat</b>: Exactly, none of the other candidates looks that good. None of them has raised a TON of money in non-super PAC cash. Trump has a ton of personal money if he needs to spend it. Let’s say you have Trump at 8 percent or whatever, and I have him at more than double that. You say there is uncertainty and so do I. But then you take that uncertainty and still peg Trump at only 8 percent to win. Here’s where I am: There’s a lot of uncertainty, so just because Trump leads now doesn’t mean he’ll win. But he has led in the polls, there is no clear money front-runner, there is no endorsement front-runner, Trump has money, GOP voters are upset, and the betting markets have Trump’s chance of winning north of 20 percent… So you know what? I’m going north of 20 percent too.</p><p><b><span></span>natesilver</b>: A completely uninformed model would give Trump a 1 in 14 chance, since there are 14 candidates left. Which is 7 percent. So I’m actually pretty close to that.</p><p>But if you want to think about this in a technical way: it’s not just that Trump has no support from his party. It’s that the party is actively looking to stop him because he’d be a catastrophe as their nominee.</p><p>Endorsements are just a proxy for party support. Jim Gilmore doesn’t have any party support &#8212; or any endorsements to speak of &#8212; but he isn’t in the same category as Trump. If you were building a model, it’s as though you’d want to give Trump negative-100 endorsement points.</p><p><b><span></span>Trumpfan1959</b>:</p><figure id=\"attachment_96845\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 300px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-96845\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/trump-youre-fired_1.jpg?w=575\" alt=\"Trump You\'re Fired_1\"   /></figure><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasichs-quiet-campaign-to-cut-abortion-access/\">John Kasich’s Quiet Campaign To Cut Abortion Access</a></p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=96840&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:36:\"http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/\";a:1:{s:10:\"commentRss\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:124:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/feed/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:38:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/\";a:1:{s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:1:\"0\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:2:{s:9:\"thumbnail\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:0:\"\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:3:\"url\";s:86:\"http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/gettyimages-498513880.jpg?w=150\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"content\";a:3:{i:0;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"\n			\n		\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:2:{s:3:\"url\";s:86:\"http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/gettyimages-498513880.jpg?w=150\";s:6:\"medium\";s:5:\"image\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:1:{s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:1:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:51:\"Donald 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You\'re Fired_1\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"html\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}}}}}}}i:11;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:56:\"\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n				\n		\n		\n\n		\n		\n				\n			\n		\n	\n		\n\n		\n	\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:6:{s:0:\"\";a:7:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:36:\"Will Your Holiday Flight Be On Time?\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:72:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-your-holiday-flight-be-on-time/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:80:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-your-holiday-flight-be-on-time/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Tue, 24 Nov 2015 17:16:11 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:3:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Air Travel\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Airlines\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"Flights\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=96417\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:543:\"Thanksgiving is traditionally a driving holiday: AAA estimates that some 42 million Americans will travel by car to their Thanksgiving dinners this week. But there will also be about 3.6 million people taking to the skies — and enduring security lines, potential delays and a critical lack of real estate in the overhead compartments. Flying [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=96417&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12:\"Ritchie King\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:3683:\"<p>Thanksgiving is traditionally a driving holiday: <a href=\"http://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/thanksgiving-travel-forecast/\">AAA estimates</a> that some 42 million Americans will travel by car to their Thanksgiving dinners this week. But there will also be about 3.6 million people taking to the skies — and enduring security lines, potential delays and a critical lack of real estate in the overhead compartments.</p><div class=\"promo\"><p class=\"image\"><a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/flights/\"><img class=\"pullout\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/screen-shot-2015-09-02-at-12-01-04-pm.png?quality=100&#038;strip=all\" alt=\"Flights\" width=\"153\" height=\"115\"></a></p><p class=\"text\"><strong>INTERACTIVE:</strong>Using detailed flight data from October 2014 through September 2015, we determined the best and worst airlines, airports and routes. <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/flights/\">Look up your local hub or plan your next flight »</a></p></div><p>Flying during the holidays can be anything but cheery, but our <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/flights/\">fastest flights finder</a> is designed to help take the edge off. We’ve <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-found-the-fastest-flights/\">assessed</a> airlines&#8217; performance, delays at airports and the quickness of different routes, and we’ve just updated our tracker with the most recent year of <a href=\"http://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp?Table_ID=236&amp;DB_Short_Name=On-Time\">flight data</a> from the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics.</p><p>Our findings? Spirit Airlines&#8217; relative performance over the past year is still suffering from a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-best-and-worst-airlines-labor-day-update-spirit-is-a-mess/\">particularly brutal summer</a>; a typical flight on Spirit added nine minutes to total travel time compared to flying other carriers between October 2014 and September 2015. Virgin America continues to be the indomitable <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/virgin-america-is-the-michael-jordan-of-airlines/\">Michael Jordan of airlines</a>, generally saving its passengers seven minutes from gate to gate compared to its peers. And Delta was the best of the big four, shaving off four minutes on average.</p><figure id=\"attachment_96434\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><a href=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screen-shot-2015-11-24-at-11-43-34-am.png\"><img class=\"show-mobile show-tablet wp-image-96434\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screen-shot-2015-11-24-at-11-43-34-am.png?w=610&#038;h=940\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2015-11-24 at 11.43.34 AM\" width=\"610\" height=\"940\" /></a></figure><figure id=\"attachment_96447\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 1000px\"><img class=\"hide-mobile hide-tablet wp-image-96447\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screen-shot-2015-11-24-at-11-43-34-am2.png?w=1000&#038;h=961\" alt=\"Screen-Shot-2015-11-24-at-11.43.34-AM\" width=\"1000\" height=\"961\" /></figure><p>Pop over to <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/flights/\">the interactive</a> to plan your travel over the winter holidays and to see <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fastest-airlines-fastest-airports/\">the best airlines and airports</a> for your upcoming trip. And enjoy your favorite regional Thanksgiving side dish on Thursday!</p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=96417&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:36:\"http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/\";a:1:{s:10:\"commentRss\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:77:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-your-holiday-flight-be-on-time/feed/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:38:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/\";a:1:{s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:1:\"0\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:1:{s:7:\"content\";a:2:{i:0;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"\n			\n		\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:2:{s:3:\"url\";s:97:\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screen-shot-2015-11-24-at-11-43-34-am.png\";s:6:\"medium\";s:5:\"image\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:1:{s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:1:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:37:\"Screen Shot 2015-11-24 at 11.43.34 AM\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"html\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}}}i:1;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"\n			\n		\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:2:{s:3:\"url\";s:98:\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screen-shot-2015-11-24-at-11-43-34-am2.png\";s:6:\"medium\";s:5:\"image\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:1:{s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:1:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:37:\"Screen-Shot-2015-11-24-at-11.43.34-AM\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"html\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}}}}}}}i:12;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:62:\"\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n				\n		\n		\n		\n\n		\n		\n				\n			\n		\n	\n		\n		\n\n		\n	\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:6:{s:0:\"\";a:7:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:91:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:99:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Mon, 23 Nov 2015 16:58:25 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:4:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13:\"2016 Election\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:23:\"2016 Republican Primary\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12:\"Donald Trump\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"Polling\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=96294\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:562:\"Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. 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Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-u-s-voters-react-to-the-paris-attacks/\">play into Trump’s hands</a>, or that <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-republicans-really-are-in-disarray/\">Republicans really might be in disarray</a>. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high.</p><p>Quite often, however, the <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/time-for-gop-panic-establishment-worried-carson-and-trump-might-win/2015/11/12/38ea88a6-895b-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html\">Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case</a> is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said so far has harmed his standing with Republicans, <a href=\"http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/thinking-about-the-trumpthinkable/\">the argument goes</a>, why should we expect him to fade later on?</p><p>One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html\">25 to 30 percent</a> of the vote in polls among the <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification\">roughly 25 percent</a> of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who <a href=\"http://www.gallup.com/poll/1993/did-men-really-land-moon.aspx\">think the Apollo moon landings were faked</a>.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/\">might not be easy</a>, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/\">alienate the rest of it</a>. Trump’s favorability ratings are <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/\">middling among Republicans</a> (and <a href=\"http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating\">awful</a> among the broader electorate).</p><p>Trump will also have to get that 25 or 30 percent to go to the polls. For now, most surveys cover Republican-leaning adults or registered voters, rather than likely voters. Combine that with the <a href=\"http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/21/the-challenges-of-polling-when-fewer-people-are-available-to-be-polled/\">poor response rates</a> to polls and the fact that an increasing number of polls use nontraditional sampling methods, and it’s not clear how much overlap there is between the people included in these surveys and the relatively small share of Republicans who will turn up to vote in primaries and caucuses.</p><p>But there’s another, more fundamental problem. That 25 or 30 percent of the vote isn’t really Donald Trump’s for the keeping. In fact, it doesn’t belong to any candidate. If past nomination races are any guide, the vast majority of eventual Republican voters haven’t made up their minds yet.</p><p>It can be easy to forget it if you cover politics for a living, but most people aren’t paying all that much attention to the campaign right now. Certainly, voters are consuming some campaign-related news. Debate ratings are way up, and Google searches for <a href=\"https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F016ncr&amp;geo=US&amp;cmpt=q&amp;tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B5\">topics related to the primaries</a><a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"24\" href=\"#fn-24\"><sup id=\"ss-24\">24</sup></a> have been running slightly ahead of where they were at a comparable point of the 2008 campaign, the last time both parties had open races. But most voters have a lot of competing priorities. Developments that can dominate a political news cycle, like Trump’s <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/13/how-many-people-actually-saw-donald-trumps-bizarre-iowa-speech-anyway/\">frenzied</a> 90-minute speech in Iowa earlier this month, may reach only <a href=\"https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/666264396428156928\">20 percent or so of Americans</a>.</p><p>We can look deeper into the Google search data for some evidence of this. In the chart below, I’ve tracked the aggregate share of primary-related searches in the 2008 and 2012 presidential cycles, based on the number of weeks before or after the Iowa caucuses.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"25\" href=\"#fn-25\"><sup id=\"ss-25\">25</sup></a> As you can see, public attention to the race starts out quite slow and only gradually accelerates &#8212; until just a week or two before Iowa, when it begins to boom. Interest continues to accelerate as Iowa, New Hampshire and the Super Tuesday states vote, before slowing down again once the outcome of the race has become clear.</p><figure id=\"attachment_96319\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-96319\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-itsearly-1.png?w=575\" alt=\"silver-itsearly-1\"   /></figure><p>To repeat: This burst of attention occurs quite late &#8212; usually when voters are days or weeks away from their primary or caucus. At this point in the 2012 nomination cycle, 10 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, only 16 percent of the eventual total of Google searches had been conducted. At this point in the 2008 cycle, only 8 percent had been. Voters are still in the early stages of their information-gathering process.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><h2>When should you start paying attention to the polls?</h2><div class=\'video-placeholder videoplayer\' data-video-id=\'14204899\' data-cms=\'espn\' data-autostart=\'false\' data-related=\'true\' data-sharebuttons=\'true\' data-omniture-site-report=\'fivethirtyeight\' data-omniture-account=\"wdgespfivethirtyeight\"></div><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p>But maybe you don’t trust the Google search data. That’s OK; exit polls like <a href=\"http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/NHDemHorizontal.pdf\">this one</a> have historically asked voters in Iowa and New Hampshire when they made their final decision on how to vote. These exit polls find that voters take their sweet time. In Iowa, on average, only 35 percent of voters had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign. And in New Hampshire, only 29 percent had. (Why is the fraction lower in New Hampshire than in Iowa? Probably because voters there are waiting for the Iowa results before locking in their choice. In fact, about half of New Hampshire voters make up their minds in the final week of the campaign.)</p><div style=\"display:block;clear:both;width:100%;\"><table class=\"viz full\"><thead><tr><th class=\"upper\" style=\"border-right-width:10px;border-right-style:solid;border-right-color:#ffffff;\" colspan=\"1\"></th><th class=\"upper upper-text\" style=\"width:20%;\" colspan=\"3\">SHARE OF IOWA VOTERS WHO DECIDED</th></tr><tr><th class=\"no-parent text\" colspan=\"1\">ELECTION</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;font-weight:400;\" colspan=\"1\">&gt; 1 MONTH OUT</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;font-weight:400;\" colspan=\"1\">1 WEEK TO 1 MONTH OUT</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;font-weight:400;\" colspan=\"1\">FINAL WEEK</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">2004 Democrats</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;\">30%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;\">27%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;\">42%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 Republicans</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">28</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">31</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">40</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 Democrats</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">49</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">24</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">27</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2012 Republicans</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">32</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">21</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">46</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Iowa Average</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">35</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">26</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">39</td></tr></tbody></table><table class=\"viz full\"><thead><tr><th class=\"upper\" style=\"border-right-width:10px;border-right-style:solid;border-right-color:#ffffff;\" colspan=\"1\"></th><th class=\"upper upper-text\" style=\"width:20%;\" colspan=\"3\">SHARE OF N.H. VOTERS WHO DECIDED</th></tr><tr><th class=\"no-parent text\" colspan=\"1\">ELECTION</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;font-weight:400;\" colspan=\"1\">&gt; 1 MONTH OUT</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;font-weight:400;\" colspan=\"1\">1 WEEK TO 1 MONTH OUT</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"width:16%;font-weight:400;\" colspan=\"1\">FINAL WEEK</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">2004 Democrats</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;\">26%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;\">19%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:16%;\">54%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 Republicans</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">29</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">22</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:16%;padding-right:1.1em;\">50</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2008 Democrats</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">34</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">17</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:16%;padding-right:1.1em;\">48</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">2012 Republicans</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">28</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">26</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"width:16%;padding-right:1.1em;\">46</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text highlight bold\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">New Hampshire Average</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"width:20%;padding-right:1.1em;\">29</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"width:30%;padding-right:1.1em;\">21</td><td class=\"number highlight bold\" style=\"width:16%;padding-right:1.1em;\">50</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>By comparison, voters decide much earlier in general elections. In Ohio in 2012, for example, 76 percent of voters had <a href=\"http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/ohio/president/#exitPoll\">settled on Mitt Romney or Barack Obama by the end of September</a>. This is why it’s common to see last-minute surges or busts in nomination races (think Rick Santorum or Howard Dean), but not in general elections.</p><p>If even by New Year’s Day (a month before the Iowa caucuses, which are scheduled for Feb. 1) only about one-third of Iowa voters will have come to their final decision, the percentage must be even lower now &#8212; perhaps something like 20 percent of voters are locked in. When you see an Iowa poll, you should keep in mind that the real situation looks something more like this:<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"26\" href=\"#fn-26\"><sup id=\"ss-26\">26</sup></a></p><table class=\"viz full\" style=\"display:block;clear:both;\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">CANDIDATE</th><th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">SUPPORT IN IOWA</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">Undecided</td><td class=\"number\">80%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Donald Trump</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Ben Carson</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">4</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Ted Cruz</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">3</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Marco Rubio</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">2</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jeb Bush</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Carly Fiorina</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Mike Huckabee</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Chris Christie</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"padding-right:1.1em;\">1</td></tr></tbody></table><p>So, could Trump win? We confront two stubborn facts: first, that nobody remotely like Trump has won a major-party nomination in the modern era.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"27\" href=\"#fn-27\"><sup id=\"ss-27\">27</sup></a> And second, as is always a problem in analysis of presidential campaigns, we don’t have all that many data points, so unprecedented events can occur with some regularity. For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent. Your mileage may vary. But you probably shouldn’t rely solely on the polls to make your case; it’s still too soon for that.</p><p><strong>Read more: </strong><a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/stump-speech/?ex_cid=endlink\">&#8220;The Perfect Republican Stump Speech&#8221;</a></p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=96294&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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On this week’s show (Nov. 17, 2015), <strong>Nate Silver</strong> sits in to discuss how Peyton Manning can solidify his all-time-great status and get benched in the same game. We also look at the New England Patriots&#8217; fantastic start in the NFL and whether it suggests a perfect season is likely, talk to ESPN FC&#8217;s <strong>Mike Goodman</strong> about Chelsea&#8217;s awful start in the English Premier League, and get a significant digit on Ronda Rousey&#8217;s stunning defeat over the weekend.</p><p>Stream the episode by clicking the play button, or subscribe using one of the podcast clients we’ve linked to above. Links to what we discussed are here:</p><ul><li>Neil Paine breaks down Manning&#8217;s brilliant career, <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/peyton-manning-was-at-his-worst-but-hes-still-the-best/\">and terrible Sunday</a>.</li><li>With or without Julian Edelman, the Patriots are more likely to win the Super Bowl after an undefeated season than they are to lose in the playoffs, says <a href=\"http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14141572/bet-patriots-win-all\">Ian O&#8217;Connor of ESPN</a>.</li><li>FiveThirtyEight breaks down <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chelseas-historically-awful-start/\">Chelsea&#8217;s awful start</a>.</li><li>The Guardian looks at Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho&#8217;s magical run and <a href=\"http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/nov/03/jose-mourinho-chelsea-10-year-cycle\">whether it&#8217;s coming to a close</a>.</li></ul><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><h2>Peyton Manning is still the best</h2><div class=\'video-placeholder videoplayer\' data-video-id=\'14156638\' data-cms=\'espn\' data-autostart=\'false\' data-related=\'true\' data-sharebuttons=\'true\' data-omniture-site-report=\'fivethirtyeight\' data-omniture-account=\"wdgespfivethirtyeight\"></div><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><em>If you’re a fan of our podcasts, be sure to <a href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/hot-takedown/id976726020?mt=2\">subscribe on iTunes</a> and leave a rating/review. 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And although the effects on the U.S. presidential election are far from the most important, they do exist. So while Paris isn’t principally an election story, this week’s politics Slack chat deals with how the attacks might alter the 2016 campaign. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>micah</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, politics editor): Since the terror attacks in Paris, political analysts have put forward a number of &#8212; sometimes contradictory &#8212; theories of how the attacks will upend the Republican and Democratic presidential nomination contests. It does seem safe to say, at least in the short term, that foreign policy and national security will be paramount campaign issues. But what effect will the attacks have on the election long term? Let’s take these theories one by one:</p><p><i>Effect No. 1: The attacks will elevate the “more serious” candidates, while hurting Donald Trump and Ben Carson, who currently sit atop national Republican polls.</i></p><p><b>harry</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\">Harry Enten</a>, senior political writer): First, our thoughts are with the people of France and others who were affected by this terrorist attack. In terms of politics, any effect assumes that people are listening to the statements that candidates are making in the first place. Patrick Ruffini over at Echelon Insights ran a very interesting Google Consumer Survey this weekend and found that the vast majority of adults hadn’t even heard <a href=\"http://www.buzzfeed.com/kyleblaine/jeb-bush-us-should-focus-on-christian-refugees-in-syria#.hdmD1ZRrQ\">Jeb Bush’s statement</a> about Syrian refugees on Sunday.</p><div class=\"non-jetpack-embed \"><div class=\"embed-twitter\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" width=\"550\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Wrapped up a Google Consumer Survey testing recall of various comments made by candidates in recent weeks. Results: <a href=\"https://t.co/z0WejnH6I2\">pic.twitter.com/z0WejnH6I2</a></p><p>&mdash; Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/666264396428156928\">November 16, 2015</a></p></blockquote><p><script async src=\"//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"></script></div></div><p><b>micah</b>: So you don’t buy effect No. 1?</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’m not saying that I don’t buy it. I’m merely saying that it’s difficult for anything any candidate says to break through. So I’m not sure that Carson or Trump not knowing what they’re talking about on foreign policy will make much of a difference.</p><p><b>natesilver</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, editor in chief): In the long run, it could elevate fitness-for-office, “red phone” types of questions. But it’s also possible that Republicans think of Trump, for instance, as being pretty darn presidential.</p><p><b>micah</b>: So maybe we should differentiate between Carson and Trump?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I guess I’m making a separate point, which is that the way that Acela Corridor elites see the candidates won’t necessarily match how voters see them. There were points during his rise four years ago that Newt Gingrich was viewed as highly “presidential” in polls, for instance.</p><p>With that said, it does seem as though the effects on Carson and Trump could be different, since Trump has placed so much more emphasis on national security.</p><p>Then again, the last <a href=\"http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/10/24/iowa-poll-trumps-ego-its-big-but-hes-also-change-agent-carson-clinton-electable/74405330/\">Des Moines Register poll</a> in Iowa found a plurality of Republicans calling Carson the “most presidential.&#8221;</p><p><b>harry</b>: Here’s the thing: It will be very difficult to assign a Carson and/or Trump decline to any specific event. Most experts believed that Carson and Trump would not win the nomination anyway. Now, I think most people who analyze elections for a living believe the same thing.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>:</p><figure id=\"attachment_95744\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><a href=\"http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/10/24/iowa-poll-trumps-ego-its-big-but-hes-also-change-agent-carson-clinton-electable/74405330/\"><img class=\"wp-image-95744\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screen-shot-2015-11-16-at-4-20-59-pm.png?w=610&#038;h=215\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2015-11-16 at 4.20.59 PM\" width=\"610\" height=\"215\" /></a></figure><p><b>harry</b>: What’s the correlation about having the finger on the nuclear button and the horse race?</p><p><b>micah</b>: That data does suggest that there is a chance voters will be less willing to “gamble” on Trump.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’m not sure that I agree with that, Micah. Here’s why: Take a look at the nuclear button question: 26 percent say Carson is most trusted with the nuclear button, and Carson gets 28 percent in the horse race in <a href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/carson-surges-past-trump-in-latest-bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-iowa-poll\">that poll</a>. Fourteen percent trust Trump most, and he gets 19 percent in the horse race. There just isn’t that large of a difference. Maybe Carson and Trump do a little worse, but it’s not that much worse.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I agree that most of this is a “halo effect.” I’m reminded of four years ago when lots of Republican voters described Newt Gingrich as “presidential.” People tend to become attracted to candidates for reasons they find hard to articulate. If they like one thing about them, they tend to think everything else is pretty groovy about them as well.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Yeah, voters find who they like and then say they like them on issue questions, not the other way around.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Nate, you seem to be a little all over the map here?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I think there are a number of possible effects that are somewhere between marginal and unpredictable.</p><p>On the margin, it’s probably unhelpful for Trump or Carson for “red phone” questions to be elevated. But it’s probably not a huge effect. Meanwhile, it’s probably helpful for Trump that Islamic State is a big part of the story, since he’s been talking about it way more than the other candidates.</p><p><b>micah</b>: <i>Effect No. 2: The attacks in Paris will sideline economic issues, hurting Bernie Sanders’s chances in the Democratic primary.</i></p><p><b>harry</b>: That implies that Sanders’s chances were high to begin with. I don’t think it has a major impact on the Democratic race.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah. It’s definitely not the focus that Sanders would prefer, which is why his campaign was <a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/14/politics/paris-terror-attacks-bernie-sanders-democratic-debate/\">pushing back</a> against talking about Paris so much in the debate on Saturday. But at this point, the Democratic race is basically about whether there’s a major scandal or some other shoe to drop on Hillary Clinton.</p><p>It’s bad for Sanders in the sense that it gives him less time to talk from his economic playbook while he has a national audience. And it’s that national conversation that may be his goal more than actually winning office.</p><p><b>harry</b>: One thing I want to point out is that there was a <a href=\"http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/07/14/climate-change-seen-as-top-global-threat/\">Pew Research Center survey</a> from May that found that nearly as many Democrats were &#8220;very concerned&#8221; about global warming as were &#8220;very concerned&#8221; about Islamic State, so the Sanders <a href=\"http://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-doubles-down-climate-change-terrorism-link/\">pivot to global warming</a> in the debate on Saturday night made a lot of sense.</p><figure id=\"attachment_95748\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><a href=\"http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/07/14/climate-change-seen-as-top-global-threat/\"><img class=\"wp-image-95748\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/ft_15-07-10_globalthreats_partisan.png?w=610&#038;h=374\" alt=\"FT_15.07.10_globalThreats_partisan\" width=\"610\" height=\"374\" /></a></figure><p>If this race were more competitive, then sure, Clinton is probably helped. A <a href=\"http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-bests-sanders-as-the-democrats-change-candidate/\">CBS News poll</a> released last week showed Democratic primary voters were a lot more confident in her ability to handle an international crisis than Sanders’s, but this race is probably over anyway unless Clinton drops out or does something tremendously wrong.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: To be honest, though, I wonder if we’re not being too short-term focused. We live in a troubled world. The news cycle can turn over pretty fast. For me, the questions are more about what comes out of this. In particular, (i) whether there are repeat attacks; (ii) what effect Paris has on the conversation about refugees and immigrants; (iii) what sort of military action might be taken against Islamic State and how involved the U.S. would be.</p><p><b>harry</b>: That&#8217;s an interesting point about immigration. That’s where the focus seems to be right now. We’re talking about <a href=\"http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/syria-refugees-governors-reject-215927\">refugees being accepted by different states</a>. If you have paid any attention to this race so far, you know the major Republican candidate who has been the most forceful on immigration: Donald Trump. How is a fight about immigration not being fought on his turf?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: And it’s interesting how even moderate blue-state Republican governors, like Rick Snyder in Michigan and Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, are talking about banning Syrian refugees. Definitely suggests that the debate on the GOP side is on Trump’s turf.</p><p><b>harry</b>: At least for the time being &#8212; but again, the Iowa caucuses aren’t until Feb. 1.</p><p><b>micah</b>: <i>Effect No. 3: With the economy doing relatively well, Republicans have had to dance around a little to run a “challenger&#8217;s campaign&#8221; against President Obama (and, by the transitive property, the Democratic nominee). Since the attacks in Paris, GOP candidates have been unsparing in their criticism of Obama’s foreign policy. So if foreign policy stays a focus of the campaign, that helps the Republican nominee in the general election &#8212; especially because he or she can make the case against Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state too.</i></p><p><b>harry</b>: Well, I sorta disagree with the premise of your question, but I agree with the larger point. As we previously <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-election-is-a-year-away-is-either-party-winning/\">talked about</a>, I think (at least for now) the GOP is a slight favorite given the national conditions for 2016 if nothing else changes. Still, <a href=\"http://www.people-press.org/2015/07/23/gops-favorability-rating-takes-a-negative-turn/\">Pew found</a> in July that &#8212; by a 10 percentage point margin &#8212; more Americans said the Republican Party was better able to handle a terrorist threat than the Democratic Party.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: As on the previous questions, I have some contradictory thoughts here. Sure, national security might be more of a Republican issue. But it may not be all that important an issue to voters, unless there’s an attack on the U.S. or the U.S. is putting a substantial number of troops on the ground somewhere. Even in 2004, in the shadow of both 9/11 and the Iraq War, only 19 percent of voters <a href=\"http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html\">said</a> terrorism was their most important issue, and 15 percent said Iraq.</p><p>Also, while at the margin a focus on national security might help Republicans, there are other marginal effects that could run in the opposite direction. In theory, there’s a rally-around-the-flag effect that could help the incumbent party (i.e., Democrats). And Clinton has more national security experience than the likely Republican nominees. With all that said, her defensiveness about national security during the debate changed my opinion about this some.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Yes, but more Americans disapprove than approve of how Clinton handled her job as secretary of state, according to a <a href=\"https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/22/benghazi/\">recent YouGov survey</a>:</p><figure id=\"attachment_95751\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 532px\"><a href=\"https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/22/benghazi/\"><img class=\"wp-image-95751\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/benghazi3.png?w=532&#038;h=475\" alt=\"benghazi3\" width=\"532\" height=\"475\" /></a></figure><p>I think on the whole it’s a net negative for Clinton for the focus to be on national security, especially given Benghazi. Americans are far more likely to disapprove than approve of her handling of that:</p><figure id=\"attachment_95752\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><a href=\"https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/22/benghazi/\"><img class=\"wp-image-95752\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/benghazi2.png?w=610&#038;h=321\" alt=\"benghazi2\" width=\"610\" height=\"321\" /></a></figure><p>I agree with the larger point, though, that we don’t know what the focus of the race will be in a year, and it’s possible that this will not even be on the minds of most Americans then.</p><p><b>micah</b>: <i>Effect No. 4: A focus on national security hurts Marco Rubio’s chances because of his relative inexperience.</i></p><p><b>harry</b>: Disagree. He’s one of the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-may-have-already-won/\">more hawkish of the bunch</a>. If Republican voters become more hawkish in the wake of Paris, that helps Rubio.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I think a more interesting question might be what it means for Jeb Bush.</p><p><b>harry</b>: And what do you think it might mean for Jeb, Nathaniel Read Silver?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: It could plausibly cause some re-litigation of the Iraq War. (That also has reverberations for Clinton, of course.) Which is an interesting issue since there’s a huge split between the GOP and everyone else on the issue. Republicans <a href=\"http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228\">still support</a> the Iraq War 62-28, while independents are against it 26-65 and Democrats 16-78.</p><p>Perhaps related, a majority of Republicans <a href=\"http://www.gallup.com/poll/186590/oppose-sending-ground-troops-fight-militants.aspx\">favored</a> using ground troops against the Islamic State even before Paris, while independents and Democrats did not.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’ll just say this on Bush: I don’t think he’ll win the nomination, but stuff like Paris proves why it’s stupid to dismiss (reasonable) candidates this cycle. Anything can change.</p><p><b>micah</b>: All right, let me try to sum up the collective wisdom we’ve provided FiveThirtyEight readers in this chat:</p><p>It’s not clear how the attacks in Paris will affect the presidential race &#8212; and seeing how the attacks will have real, life-and-death consequences beyond politics &#8212; that’s where your focus should be.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I think so, though this <i>is</i> an election issue. 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Romney\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=95690\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:535:\"It was only a few weeks ago that Vice President Biden ended months of misguided speculation by affirming that he wouldn’t run for president. But now there’s rumor of another possible last-minute bid, this time on the Republican side. “[S]ome in the party establishment are so desperate to change the dynamic that they are talking [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=95690&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13592:\"<p>It was only a few weeks ago that Vice President Biden ended <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-the-media-blew-the-joe-biden-story/\">months of misguided speculation</a> by affirming that he wouldn’t run for president. But now there’s rumor of another possible last-minute bid, this time on the Republican side.</p><p>“[S]ome in the party establishment are so desperate to change the dynamic that they are talking anew about drafting [Mitt] Romney,” <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/time-for-gop-panic-establishment-worried-carson-and-trump-might-win/2015/11/12/38ea88a6-895b-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html\">reported</a> the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa on Friday. “Friends have mapped out a strategy for a late entry to pick up delegates and vie for the nomination in a convention fight, according to the Republicans who were briefed on the talks, though Romney has shown no indication of reviving his interest.”</p><figure id=\"attachment_95695\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-95695\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/giphy-2_gif_static.gif?w=575\" data-animate=\"http://i0.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/giphy-2.gif?strip=all\" data-autoplay=0 alt=\"giphy (2)\"   /></figure><p>Mitt Romney’s making a comeback? Errrr, probably not. Historically, rumored eleventh-hour bids like these have almost never come to fruition. It’s not just Biden: Until quite late in the 2012 campaign cycle, there were reports that various candidates &#8212; <a href=\"http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Christie-president-Romney-Perry/2011/09/23/id/412133/\">Chris Christie</a>, <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/08/17/gov_scott_walker_i_hope_paul_ryan_runs_for_president.html\">Paul Ryan</a>,<a href=\"http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a12130/jeb-bush-for-president-2012-6619508/\"> Jeb Bush</a>, etc. &#8212; might enter the race to challenge Romney. None of them did.</p><p>But forget that for a second. (Also forget that when candidates like Fred Thompson and Wesley Clark have launched their bids late, they’ve <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/joe-biden-2016-announcement/\">tended to crash and burn</a> &#8212; and that Romney’s bid would be even later than theirs.) Instead, let’s play along.</p><p>Unlike Biden, whose quasi-candidacy <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/most-of-the-speculation-about-a-joe-biden-presidential-run-is-malarkey/\">never had a coherent rationale</a> except as a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-bidens-potential-2016-presidential-campaign/\">hedge against a major Hillary Clinton scandal</a>, Romney would be entering a race without a dominant frontrunner. Donald Trump and Ben Carson remain atop the polls. Marco Rubio appears to be in the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-trump-cruz-or-rubio-have-the-best-pre-debate-chance/\">best position of any establishment candidate</a>, but that’s like having the closest seat to the buffet table at an offensive lineman’s wedding; there’s still a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-versus-marco-rubio-is-a-long-way-off/\">lot of jostling to go</a> before anyone gets their grub.</p><p>The only thing the GOP establishment seems to agree upon is that it doesn’t want Trump or Carson to be the nominee. So if the GOP wants to minimize the chance of one of them being nominated, does it make sense to support a Romney campaign?</p><p>The answer depends on your theory of why Trump and Carson are leading in the polls. If the GOP has chosen the wrong theory, then throwing its support behind Romney could backfire.</p><p>(I’m assuming, by the way, that candidates like Rubio and Jeb Bush wouldn&#8217;t instantly drop their bids just because Romney entered the race. Romney would begin with a foothold of establishment support, but would have to fight to win the rest of it.)</p><h2>Theory No. 1: “It’s just a phase”</h2><p>This theory holds that the polls showing Trump and Carson ahead don’t mean very much. After all, polls historically haven’t been very reliable at this stage of the campaign; just ask <a href=\"https://twitter.com/pastfrontrunner\">past frontrunners </a>like Howard Dean, Rudy Giuliani and Herman Cain.</p><p>Furthermore, the theory (which heavily overlaps with “<a href=\"http://www.amazon.com/The-Party-Decides-Presidential-Nominations/dp/0226112373\">The Party Decides</a>” hypothesis that we discuss frequently at FiveThirtyEight) implies that there’s no need for the GOP establishment to panic since it will probably win in the end. There are lots of campaigns that look chaotic until the first few states vote, but don’t wind up being all that close. Establishment-backed candidates such as John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008 rocketed into a strong position after the first few states voted and never really looked back. So did Romney in 2012, after a couple of bumps in the road.</p><p>If this theory is right, there are already several credible establishment candidates in the race, so there isn’t really need for another one. Thus, supporting Romney would be superfluous at best. And at worst, it would risk backtracking for an establishment that is <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-establishment-inches-toward-marco-rubio/\">increasingly coming to a consensus around Rubio</a> and has several backup options (like Bush and Christie) should Rubio falter.</p><h2>Theory No. 2: “This time is different”</h2><p>This theory is just the opposite; it posits that those polls showing Trump and Carson ahead are the latest sign that <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-republicans-really-are-in-disarray/\">Republicans are in disarray</a> and that the Republican grassroots is rejecting the establishment’s ambitions.</p><p>If this is the case, the establishment might be screwed no matter what it does, but it certainly wouldn’t help to divide what remaining juice it has. Instead, the establishment would want to gird itself for a long and nasty fight. And it would want to go to battle not with a porcelain figurine of the establishment like Romney or Bush, but instead with someone who had some crossover potential: Rubio, for instance, who <a href=\"http://www.teapartyexpress.org/4852/senator-marco-rubio-tea-party-choice-for-vice-president\">once was thought of as a tea party candidate</a>, or even Ted Cruz, who for all his beefs with the GOP establishment might represent a more acceptable choice to them than Carson or Trump.</p><h2>Theory No. 3: “Republicans just haven’t met the right guy/girl yet”</h2><p>Under this theory, there isn’t anything systematic going on. Rather, the failures of the current establishment candidates reflect their failings as individuals. Bush is too moderate and a rusty, “low-energy” campaigner, the theory might hold. John Kasich, despite having good credentials, has adopted an ill-advised strategy that <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-republican-debate-fox-business/\">has him running too far to the left</a>. Scott Walker was a gaffe machine whose retail skills didn’t translate beyond Wisconsin’s borders. Rubio? The jury’s still out, but he may be too young (read: too much like Barack Obama) and his support for immigration reform could come back to haunt him.</p><p>In this case, Romney would make some sense. He’s already shown he has the stuff to win a Republican nomination, after all. And he retains a reasonably good image with the party, with a <a href=\"http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/12/01/cnnorcpoll12012014.pdf\">74 percent favorable rating</a> among Republicans in a poll conducted late last year.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"28\" href=\"#fn-28\"><sup id=\"ss-28\">28</sup></a></p><p>The problem with this theory is that it’s the least plausible of the four, statistically. Sure, some candidates with good credentials on paper &#8212; Ed Muskie or Phil Gramm, for example &#8212; prove to be duds on the campaign trail. Imagine that 50 percent of otherwise-well-qualified candidates are duds.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"29\" href=\"#fn-29\"><sup id=\"ss-29\">29</sup></a> How likely is it that Bush and Kasich and Rubio and Walker and Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry are all duds simultaneously? (Not to mention <a href=\"http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-24/heres-the-2016-republican-nominee\">all the other</a> plausible establishment contenders in the GOP’s <a href=\"http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/01/29/what_if_no_one_wins_the_gop_presidential_nomination_125426.html\">historically deep and well-qualified</a> field.) Not very likely at all; it would be equivalent to flipping “tails” on a fair coin seven times in a row, the probability of which is 1-in-128.</p><p>Furthermore, it’s not as though Romney is a once-in-a-generation political talent along the lines of Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan. Instead, his performance against Obama was <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/amid-volatile-polling-keep-an-eye-on-election-fundamentals/\">no better than might be expected</a> (and perhaps a bit worse) on the basis of economic conditions, and Republicans were constantly fretting about his political skills four years ago.</p><p>So to recap: So far we have two theories under which a Romney campaign would be somewhere between pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. And we have a third theory which relies on an implausible reading of the evidence. It’s not looking very good for the Mittster.</p><p>But there’s a fourth theory under which Romney could possibly help the GOP.</p><h2>Theory No. 4: Chaos Theory</h2><p>I’m going to get a little philosophical here. Both journalists and academics tend to prefer deterministic explanations of presidential campaigns. Sure, their outcomes might not be so easy to predict ahead of time. But, this position holds, that only reflects our <a href=\"http://www.informationphilosopher.com/freedom/laplaces_demon.html\">imperfect knowledge of the initial conditions</a>; once we observe the outcome, we know that the campaign was destined to turn out as it did.</p><p>But what if campaigns are not merely hard to predict <i>but are actually a little random</i>? Or perhaps even a <i>lot</i> random? Change one small thing just slightly &#8212; a debate moderator allows a follow-up response instead of nixing one; a candidate gets food poisoning on the eve of an important primary &#8212; and the outcome winds up being not just a little bit different but potentially way different.</p><p>I don’t think this idea holds up so well for general elections, where a good percentage of voting can be explained by partisanship, incumbency, economic conditions and other “fundamental” factors. But nomination races are different; they may literally<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"30\" href=\"#fn-30\"><sup id=\"ss-30\">30</sup></a> be a bit chaotic. Timing and momentum can matter a lot: In 2012, for instance, Rick Santorum may have <a href=\"http://hotair.com/archives/2011/12/28/cnn-iowa-poll-romney-25-paul-22-santorum-16-gingrich-14/\">benefited from a lucky poll</a> that triggered favorable media coverage and helped him to break his <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polling-gridlock-in-iowa-could-produce-last-minute-momentum/\">deadlock</a> with other conservative candidates and win the Iowa caucus. That Iowa showing, in turn, helped to make Santorum the principal alternative to Romney, and he remained in the race until April. Absent that poll, Santorum might have been out of the race as fast as Michele Bachmann.</p><p>The more candidates who are running, the more potential for chaos. Walker’s abortive campaign, for instance, may have been a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/scott-walker-may-have-been-a-terrible-candidate-or-an-unlucky-one/\">result of unlucky timing</a> and an overcrowded Republican field rather than anything major he did wrong.</p><p>Wouldn’t a Romney bid &#8212; in a field that still has 15 active candidates &#8212; invite even more chaos? Maybe, but under this theory, the GOP is probably unlucky to have wound up in a world where Trump and Carson are doing so well. Doing something to shake the campaign up could be a good risk, therefore. Furthermore, Romney would potentially begin his campaign with a lot of momentum. He was <a href=\"http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16rep.htm\">polling at about 20 percent</a> of the GOP field when he was considering a bid last winter. If he started out in the same place now,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"31\" href=\"#fn-31\"><sup id=\"ss-31\">31</sup></a> he’d be at or near the top of the field, which could encourage Republicans to join the bandwagon and consolidate behind him.</p><p>Sound a little risky? Absolutely. So we’ll counter chaos theory with Occam’s razor. 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Republican Debates\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:23:\"2016 Republican Primary\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:12:\"Donald Trump\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:4;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:19:\"Fox Business Debate\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:5;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Jeb Bush\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:6;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"John Kasich\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=95225\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:536:\"Not every debate is a “game changer.” In fact, given how overzealous the press can be in declaring events to be turning points when they prove to have little effect on the campaign, it’s probably best to assume that most debates don’t matter. So I can’t begrudge Bloomberg&#8217;s Mark Halperin, for instance, for giving every [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=95225&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8340:\"<p>Not every debate is a “game changer.” In fact, given how <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/keep-calm-and-ignore-the-2016-game-changers/\">overzealous the press can be</a> in declaring events to be turning points when they <a href=\"http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/why-campaign-game-changers-rarely-change-the-game/\">prove to have little effect on the campaign</a>, it’s probably best to assume that most debates <i>don’t</i> matter.</p><p>So I can’t begrudge Bloomberg&#8217;s Mark Halperin, for instance, for <a href=\"https://twitter.com/MarkHalperin/status/664296202205159424\">giving every Republican candidate a B+ to a B-</a> for their performance in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Our staff grades at FiveThirtyEight<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"32\" href=\"#fn-32\"><sup id=\"ss-32\">32</sup></a> were pretty similar. We had six of the eight main-stage candidates bunched together between a B- and a C+, and we had Marco Rubio as the “winner” despite averaging just a B+.</p><table class=\"viz full\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\">CANDIDATE</th><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">AVERAGE GRADE</th><th class=\"rank\" colspan=\"1\">NATE&#8217;S GRADE</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text\">Marco Rubio</td><td class=\"rank\">B+</td><td class=\"rank\">B+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Rand Paul</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Ted Cruz</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B-</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Jeb Bush</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Carly Fiorina</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Donald Trump</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">Ben Carson</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C+</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">B+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">John Kasich</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C</td><td class=\"rank\" style=\"padding-right:.5em;\">C</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Personally, I thought that Rubio did fine but that Ben Carson and Ted Cruz did as much to advance their causes. Carson received more Google search traffic than any other candidate during the debate,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"33\" href=\"#fn-33\"><sup id=\"ss-33\">33</sup></a> a factor that has sometimes been a better leading indicator of polling movement than pundits’ takes on who did well, and his performance was composed after a couple of weeks of intense media scrutiny.</p><p>I’m not sure, conversely, that Jeb Bush did much to steady himself amidst a <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/\">campaign that has gone badly</a>. After <a href=\"http://www.npr.org/2015/11/10/455432676/jeb-bush-makes-an-effort-to-be-more-assertive-and-dynamic\">promising to assert himself</a>, Bush ranked <a href=\"https://twitter.com/JRussellMI/status/664295849564876800\">near the bottom in speaking time</a> and last in Google search volume.</p><p>But these are minor quibbles. Let’s instead talk about a candidate who, in addition to having a poor debate, has shown few signs of life lately: Ohio Gov. John Kasich.</p><p>We get the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/kasich-could-be-the-gops-moderate-backstop/\">theoretical case for Kasich</a>. He’s fairly moderate, but no more moderate than Bush. He’s a fresher face than Bush. And his campaigning muscles are more in shape, since he was elected and re-elected easily in Ohio in 2010 and 2014 (Bush has not run a campaign in more than a decade).</p><p>You might expect, given how much Bush is struggling, that Kasich would be surging, at least with a certain type of Republican voter.</p><p>But after a <a href=\"https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/08/12/how-john-kasich-captured-early-momentum-primary/7CcIf4T9BgTHHXkF2ZgmWO/story.html\">few</a> <a href=\"http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/22899\">premature</a> <a href=\"http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/08/17/breaking-john-kasichs-presidential-surge/31839005/\">pronouncements</a> over the summer that Kasich’s campaign had “momentum,” there are few signs of it now. He moved up in the polls in New Hampshire in July and August after running a <a href=\"https://www.google.com/search?q=john+kasich+new+hampshire+advertising+blitz&amp;oq=john+kasich+new+hampshire+advertising+blitz&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57.6345j0j4&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;es_sm=91&amp;ie=UTF-8\">blitz of advertisements</a> there, but his standing has topped out at about 8 or 9 percent, and has perhaps even declined slightly from his late-summer peak:</p><figure id=\"attachment_94921\"class=\"wp-caption aligncenter \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-94921\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/king-nh-polling-liveblog-1110.png?w=575\" alt=\"How the varsity candidates are doing in New Hampshire\"   /></figure><p>Meanwhile, Kasich’s favorability ratings are getting worse in New Hampshire: He had a net favorability rating of just +5 percentage points in a <a href=\"http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2015/11/Topline-WBUR-NH-Primary-3-Republicans.pdf\">recent WBUR poll</a>, down from +24 in September. Kasich’s favorability ratings are a little better in the <a href=\"http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/5713f5c9-e6a9-4f65-a09a-2f678233a44a.pdf\">Monmouth poll</a> of New Hampshire, but the trajectory is still well down from September.</p><p>The reason may be that Kasich, like Jon Huntsman four years ago, is spending <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-a-jeb-bush-in-jon-huntsman-clothing/\">too much time in the media bubble</a>. The predominately center-left political press may like the substance of what Kasich is saying &#8212; his positions on <a href=\"http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2015/08/06/gop_debate_john_kasich_was_gracious_and_humane_on_gay_marriage.html\">gay marriage</a> and <a href=\"http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-kasich-bible-medicaid_56140a54e4b022a4ce5fb1e3\">Medicaid</a>, for instance &#8212; and then forget how little they have in common with Republican primary voters.</p><p>I’d thought that Kasich might be engaged in an elaborate tactical bank shot. First, get on the radar screen by any means necessary. Run a ton of ads in New Hampshire six months before anyone votes there? Sure! Cozy up to the center-left media? Some coverage is better than none! Deliberately emphasize your moderate positions on the debate stage, so as to at least stand out from the other 16 candidates? Well, why not!</p><p>But part two of the strategy, I’d assumed, would be a pivot &#8212; once he had found his footing, he would move back to the right. Kasich was conspicuously not doing that in Milwaukee, however. Instead, he was <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/republican-debate-fox-business-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-14916659\">going out of his way to pick fights</a> with other Republicans, usually to prove how moderate he was.</p><p>Maybe that pivot is still coming &#8212; there’s still time in New Hampshire, especially if someone like Carson wins in Iowa. But Kasich’s declining numbers in the state are a sign that he may already have worn out his welcome.</p><p><em>Check out our <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/republican-debate-fox-business-presidential-election-2016/\">live coverage of the Republican debate</a>.</em></p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=95225&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:36:\"http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/\";a:1:{s:10:\"commentRss\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:84:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-republican-debate-fox-business/feed/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:38:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/\";a:1:{s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:1:\"0\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:2:{s:9:\"thumbnail\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:0:\"\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:3:\"url\";s:80:\"http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/ap_332306977128.jpg?w=150\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"content\";a:2:{i:0;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"\n			\n		\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:2:{s:3:\"url\";s:80:\"http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/ap_332306977128.jpg?w=150\";s:6:\"medium\";s:5:\"image\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:1:{s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:1:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"John Kasich\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"html\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}}}i:1;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:7:\"\n			\n		\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:2:{s:3:\"url\";s:89:\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/king-nh-polling-liveblog-1110.png\";s:6:\"medium\";s:5:\"image\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:1:{s:29:\"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/\";a:1:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:53:\"How the varsity candidates are doing in New Hampshire\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"html\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}}}}}}}i:17;a:6:{s:4:\"data\";s:179:\"\n		\n		\n		\n		\n		\n				\n		\n		\n\n		\n		\n				\n			\n		\n	\n		\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n\n		\n	\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"child\";a:6:{s:0:\"\";a:7:{s:5:\"title\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:72:\"Just Win, Baby (And You’ll Probably Make The College Football Playoff)\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:103:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/just-win-baby-and-youll-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:111:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/just-win-baby-and-youll-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Tue, 10 Nov 2015 20:58:23 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:3:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:16:\"College Football\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:24:\"College Football Playoff\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:28:\"College Football Predictions\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=94926\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:568:\"Last season’s first-ever College Football Playoff might have miscalibrated everyone’s sense of what it takes to make it to the final four. Six power conference champions or co-champions &#8212; Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon and TCU &#8212; were undefeated or had one loss against reasonably good schedules. There’s plenty of room to critique [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=94926&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:49002:\"<p>Last season’s first-ever College Football Playoff might have miscalibrated everyone’s sense of what it takes to make it to the final four. Six <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Five_conferences\">power conference</a> champions or co-champions<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"34\" href=\"#fn-34\"><sup id=\"ss-34\">34</sup></a> &#8212; Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon and TCU &#8212; were undefeated or had one loss against reasonably good schedules. There’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-final-college-football-playoff-rankings-contradict-history/\">plenty of room to critique</a> how the committee went about leaving Baylor and TCU out, but there was no one inherently correct way to slot six fairly equally matched teams into four playoff positions.</p><p>But a field as crowded and qualified as last year&#8217;s was atypical. Most of the time <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/expand-the-college-football-playoff/\">there are a couple of teams that are weak links</a>: a three-loss conference champion here, a one-loss team that played an incredibly weak schedule there. A mess like last year’s isn’t impossible, obviously. But usually the knot will untangle itself through conference championships, rivalry games and upsets that knock teams out late in the season.</p><p>So don’t despair, Michigan State fans. (Of which I’m <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/incredible-izzo-again-defies-odds/\">one</a>.) Yeah, you <a href=\"http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/undefeated-michigan-state-beaten-by-officials-as-appare-1741248766\">probably lost on a bad call last weekend</a>. But you’re still highly likely to make the playoff if your team wins all of its remaining games, in which case you’ll have defeated Ohio State and (probably) Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Pretty much every one-loss team from a power conference is more likely than not to make the playoff if it wins out.</p><p>And an undefeated power conference team like Oklahoma State shouldn’t fret, even if it is currently outside <a href=\"http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture/_/week/10\">the committee’s top four</a>. Some of the teams ranked in front of it are almost certain to lose &#8212; and even if they don’t, there’s a good chance Oklahoma State will leapfrog some one-loss teams if it keeps winning.</p><p>Our subjective perceptions of the playoff picture aren&#8217;t the only thing that may be miscalibrated, though. The same could be said about the FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-our-college-football-playoff-predictions-work/\">model</a>. At least, that’s the conclusion we came to when we were conducting research for this article. Although the model seems to give <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ascending-tide-updated-college-football-playoff-predictions-week-10/\">basically reasonable answers</a>, a couple of things left us scratching our heads when we examined it more deeply.</p><p>For instance, it posited a conspicuously large gap between Iowa’s chance of winning the Big Ten championship (27 percent) and making the playoff (8 percent). Iowa is undefeated, and while it’s possible they could win the Big Ten with one loss or more, the internal calculations in the model also implied that they’d have only about a 55 percent chance of making the playoff even if they ran their record to 13-0. One can see why a computer might come to that conclusion &#8212; Iowa has played a pretty bad schedule, and its margin of victory hasn’t been impressive &#8212; but human beings are going to vote an undefeated Big Ten champion into the playoff unless almost everything else<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"35\" href=\"#fn-35\"><sup id=\"ss-35\">35</sup></a> is working against them.</p><p>Readers had some questions for us too. Why was USC, which already has three losses, given any realistic chance by the model (granted, it was just 4 percent) of making the playoff? And why was one-loss Alabama’s chance of making the playoff so much higher than its SEC championship chances? There are some good reasons for that one,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"36\" href=\"#fn-36\"><sup id=\"ss-36\">36</sup></a> but even accounting for those, the gap seemed to be too wide and the model seemed to be too optimistic about Alabama still making the playoff if it endured a second loss.</p><p>The theme here is that human beings pay a lot of attention to wins and losses &#8212; more than our computer seemed to be doing. An undefeated power conference team is going to get in except under rare circumstances. Two-loss power conference teams have historically <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/expand-the-college-football-playoff/\">finished in the AP top four</a> more often than you might think, but it’s still a hard road. And a three-loss team making the playoff? Almost impossible unless there’s total carnage everywhere else.</p><p>Since the whole point of our model is to mimic human intuition, reader feedback made us think it had some blind spots. So we re-examined the historical data<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"37\" href=\"#fn-37\"><sup id=\"ss-37\">37</sup></a> and concluded that our model should be placing more weight on plain-vanilla wins and losses. Or at least, it should be doing so for power conference teams (and for Notre Dame); minor conference teams historically haven’t been treated that kindly by either poll voters or the committee. Even if the committee currently ranks a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team, or a two-loss team ahead of a one-loss team, it may re-examine the case in future weeks, and the team with fewer losses will often get the benefit of the doubt. (For a more technical explanation of how this is implemented in the model, see the footnotes.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"38\" href=\"#fn-38\"><sup id=\"ss-38\">38</sup></a>)</p><p>This relatively simple change has little impact for most teams, but it does affect a couple of the cases that had bothered us (and some of our loyal readers). Iowa’s chances of making the playoff are now 18 percent instead of 8 percent. Alabama’s are 42 percent instead of 54 percent. USC’s are 1 percent<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"39\" href=\"#fn-39\"><sup id=\"ss-39\">39</sup></a> instead of 4 percent. Here’s how everyone’s odds were affected by the change:</p><figure id=\"attachment_94955\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-94955\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-revised-nfl-11.png?w=575\" alt=\"silver-revised-nfl-1\"   /></figure><p>And here’s a new summary table showing the playoff picture heading into tonight, when the playoff committee will release its new rankings at 7 p.m. Undefeated Baylor has moved slightly ahead of one-loss Notre Dame in our forecast, but otherwise the top six are unchanged.</p><table class=\"viz\" style=\"width:100% !important;\"><thead style=\"font-size:11px;border-bottom:0 !important;\"><tr class=\"hide-480\"><th></th><th></th><th></th><th style=\"border-bottom:1px solid black;text-align:center;\" colspan=\"3\">Ranking</th><th></th><th style=\"border-bottom:1px solid black;text-align:center;\" colspan=\"3\">Probability of &#8230;</th></tr><tr style=\"padding-right:0 !important;padding-left:0 !important;\"><th style=\"border-bottom:2px solid black;\" width=\"3.5%\"></th><th class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:2px solid black;\">Team</th><th class=\"hide-480\" width=\"0%\"></th><th class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-weight:400;border-bottom:2px solid black;padding-right:2px !important;padding-left:2px !important;\" width=\"5%\">CFP</th><th class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-weight:400;border-bottom:2px solid black;padding-right:2px !important;padding-left:2px !important;\" width=\"5%\">Elo</th><th class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-weight:400;border-bottom:2px solid black;padding-right:2px !important;padding-left:2px !important;\" width=\"5%\">FPI</th><th class=\"hide-480\" width=\"0%\"></th><th class=\"number\" style=\"font-weight:400;border-bottom:2px solid black;text-align:center;padding-right:1px !important;padding-left:1px !important;\" width=\"16.8%\">Conf. Title</th><th class=\"number\" style=\"font-weight:400;border-bottom:2px solid black;text-align:center;padding-right:1px !important;padding-left:1px !important;\" width=\"16.8%\">Playoff</th><th class=\"title number\" style=\"font-weight:400;border-bottom:2px solid black;text-align:center;padding-right:1px !important;padding-left:1px !important;\" width=\"16.8%\">Nat. Title</th></tr></thead><tbody style=\"font-size:1.07em;\"><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/228.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Clemson<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 9-0</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#0096d5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">1</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#3a9ed8;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">3</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#60aade;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">6</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#faa43a;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">67%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#faa53b;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">67%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe9d0;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">17%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/194.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Ohio State<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 9-0</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#3a9ed8;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">3</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#269ad7;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">2</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#55a6dc;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">5</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffc482;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">44%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffb159;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">57%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffebd5;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">15%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/333.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Alabama<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#48a2da;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">4</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#0096d5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">1</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#48a2da;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">4</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffd19d;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">35%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffc78a;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">42%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff0de;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">12%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:2px solid black;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/239.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:2px solid black;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Baylor<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-0</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#60aade;border-bottom:2px solid black;padding:3px!important;\">6</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#6aaee0;border-bottom:2px solid black;padding:3px!important;\">7</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#269ad7;border-bottom:2px solid black;padding:3px!important;\">2</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffd2a1;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:2px solid black;\">34%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffd5a7;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:2px solid black;\">32%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffefde;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:2px solid black;\">12%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/87.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Notre Dame<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#55a6dc;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">5</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#60aade;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">6</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#7db6e3;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">9</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">—</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffd8ac;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">30%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff6eb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">7%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/24.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Stanford<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#8ebfe6;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">11</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#55a6dc;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">5</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#8ebfe6;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">11</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffb96c;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">52%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffddb8;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">26%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff8f1;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">5%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/197.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Oklahoma St.<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 9-0</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#a7cbeb;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">14</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#48a2da;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">4</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#9ec7e9;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">13</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffcd97;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">37%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe1c1;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">23%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff9f2;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">5%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/57.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Florida<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#85bae5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">10</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#85bae5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">10</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#a7cbeb;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">14</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffcc95;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">38%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe6cb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">19%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffbf6;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">3%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2294.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Iowa<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 9-0</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#7db6e3;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">9</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#9ec7e9;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">13</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">29</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffdcb4;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">27%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe9d0;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">18%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffdfb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">2%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/201.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Oklahoma<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#aed0ed;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">15</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#a7cbeb;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">14</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#0096d5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">1</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe7cb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">19%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe9d0;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">17%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff5eb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">7%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/99.png&amp;w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">LSU<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#269ad7;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">2</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#7db6e3;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">9</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#74b2e1;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">8</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffeeda;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">14%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffebd6;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">15%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffaf5;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">4%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/254.png&amp;w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Utah<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#95c3e8;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">12</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#8ebfe6;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">11</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#dbeaf7;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">21</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe3c3;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">22%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffefde;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">12%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffdfa;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">2%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2628.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">TCU<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#74b2e1;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">8</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#95c3e8;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">12</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#3a9ed8;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">3</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff3e5;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">10%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff1e2;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">11%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffaf5;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">4%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/127.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Michigan St.<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#6aaee0;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">7</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#74b2e1;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">8</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#e2eef9;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">22</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff0de;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">12%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff1e2;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">10%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefc;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/130.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Michigan<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-2</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#bdd8f0;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">17</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#d3e5f5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">20</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#b5d3ef;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">16</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffeedb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">13%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff6ed;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">6%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffdfc;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/153.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">North Carolina<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\"><span style=\"color:#cdcdcd;\">—</span></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#c5ddf2;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">18</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#d3e5f5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">20</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffd8ac;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">30%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff9f3;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">5%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/344.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Mississippi St.<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-2</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#d3e5f5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">20</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#b5d3ef;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">16</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#aed0ed;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">15</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffcf8;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffbf8;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/26.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">UCLA<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-2</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#e9f1fa;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">23</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#dbeaf7;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">21</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#c5ddf2;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">18</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff8ef;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">6%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffbf8;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/248.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Houston<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 9-0</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#f8fbfd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">25</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#e2eef9;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">22</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">36</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffd4a3;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">33%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffcfa;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">2%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/30.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">USC<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 6-3</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\"><span style=\"color:#cdcdcd;\">—</span></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#cce1f4;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">19</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#6aaee0;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">7</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe6ca;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">19%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefc;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/275.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Wisconsin<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-2</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\"><span style=\"color:#cdcdcd;\">—</span></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#bdd8f0;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">17</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#f1f6fc;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">24</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffcf8;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/218.png&amp;w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Temple<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#e2eef9;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">22</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">28</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">39</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffc586;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">43%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/145.png&amp;w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Mississippi<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-3</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#c5ddf2;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">18</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">26</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#85bae5;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">10</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff3e7;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">9%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffefe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2426.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Navy<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\"><span style=\"color:#cdcdcd;\">—</span></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#aed0ed;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">15</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">54</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#ffe6cb;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">19%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/52.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Florida State<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-2</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#b5d3ef;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">16</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#f1f6fc;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">24</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#bdd8f0;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">17</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">0%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/235.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Memphis<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 8-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#9ec7e9;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">13</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">31</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">45</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffbf8;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">3%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/77.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Northwestern<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-2</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#dbeaf7;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">21</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">29</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">61</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2649.png&amp;h=150&amp;w=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Toledo<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 7-1</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#f1f6fc;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">24</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">40</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">53</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fff3e7;color:#3c3c3c;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">9%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr><td style=\"padding:0!important;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\"><img style=\"margin-top:4px;width:100%;\" src=\"http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/245.png?w=150&amp;h=150&amp;transparent=true\" alt=\"\" /></td><td class=\"text\" style=\"border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding-left:3px !important;padding-right:0 !important;\">Texas A&amp;M<span style=\"font-size:.8em;color:#b2b2b2;\"> 6-3</span></td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#cce1f4;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">19</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:white;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">49</td><td class=\"rank hide-480\" style=\"font-size:12px;background-color:#e9f1fa;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;padding:3px!important;\">23</td><td class=\"hide-480\" style=\"border:none !important;padding:0!important;\"></td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:#fffffe;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td><td class=\"number\" style=\"background-color:white;color:#cdcdcd;border-bottom:1px solid #cdcdcd;\">&lt;1%</td></tr><tr style=\"border:none !important;\"><td style=\"height:10px;border:none !important;\" colspan=\"10\"></td></tr><tr style=\"border:none !important;\"><td style=\"border:none !important;color:#999999;font-size:.8em;\" colspan=\"10\">College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 3.</td></tr></tbody></table><p>&nbsp;</p><p>But back to football substance. I mentioned before how lots of teams, even if they don’t technically control their own destiny,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"40\" href=\"#fn-40\"><sup id=\"ss-40\">40</sup></a> are favored to make the playoff if they win the rest of their games. Now that the model is (hopefully) doing a better job of mimicking the emphasis that human voters place on wins and losses, we can be more precise about that. Specifically, the model estimates that 14 teams have a 50 percent or greater likelihood of making the playoff conditional on winning out.</p><p>The model figures that Michigan State, for instance, has an 86 percent chance of making the playoff if it wins out. Even the lowliest one-loss major conference team, North Carolina, which wasn’t ranked by the committee last week, is about even-money to make the playoff if it wins out. And undefeated Iowa (91 percent) and Oklahoma State (97 percent) are all but assured of making the playoff if they finish the year without a loss, even if the committee doesn’t have them in the top four tonight.</p><figure id=\"attachment_94936\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-94936\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-nfl-revised-3.png?w=575\" alt=\"silver-nfl-revised-3\"   /></figure><p>So the tough part for teams like Michigan State isn’t sweating the committee’s decision if it wins the Big Ten; it’s getting to that point in the first place. With Ohio State and Iowa still in the way; the Spartans have only an 11 percent chance of running the table.</p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=94926&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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Huckabee\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:13;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:10:\"Slack Chat\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:14;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:8:\"Ted Cruz\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=94850\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:531:\"With the fourth Republican debate happening on Tuesday, we used this week’s politics Slack chat to check in on the state of the GOP primary. But this is FiveThirtyEight, so instead of just spouting off on the race, we played one of our favorite games: “Buy/Sell/Hold.” As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited. [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=94850&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:18002:\"<p>With the fourth Republican debate happening on Tuesday, we used this week’s politics Slack chat to check in on the state of the GOP primary. But this is FiveThirtyEight, so instead of just spouting off on the race, we played one of our favorite games: “Buy/Sell/Hold.” As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.</p><p><em><strong>Check out our <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/republican-debate-fox-business-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=endlink\">live coverage of the GOP debate</a>.</strong></em></p><div class=\'ornamental-rule\'><hr /><span></span></div><p><b>micah</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/micah-cohen/\">Micah Cohen</a>, politics editor): It’s been awhile since we’ve played “Buy/Sell/Hold” for the GOP primary. So, let’s play! The rules, as always: I give you the chances for each candidate as implied by the <a href=\"http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination\">current betting line</a> on Betfair.com, and you have to decide whether to buy/sell/hold stock in that candidate given that price.</p><p>OK, Nate and Harry, we’re going in reverse alphabetical order! First up: Donald Trump with an 18.7 percent chance to win the GOP nomination &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>natesilver</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/\">Nate Silver</a>, editor in chief): First of all, I just want to say that as someone with a late-alphabet last name, I support reverse alphabetical order.</p><p><b>harry</b> (<a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/\">Harry Enten</a>, senior political writer): Very nice. And as someone with a brain, I support selling Trump at 18.7 percent.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m a sell at 18.7 percent, indeed. Trump has risen quite a bit over at Betfair over the past month or so, which I’m not sure makes sense.</p><p><b>harry</b>: It’s people seeing the calendar go by and Trump still doing decently well in the polls.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Yeah, isn’t the logic something like, “The longer he sits atop the polls, the more REAL Trump’s support is&#8221;?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: But as we emphasize a lot around here, political time is not linear. What you say is true narrowly speaking. I don’t think anybody, us included, is saying Trump has literally zero chance. And those chances will rise the longer he maintains his position in the polls. But polls in early November aren’t particularly more informative than those in October or September or August or July.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Most people are planning Thanksgiving and their Christmas shopping. They still aren’t paying all that much attention.</p><p><b>micah</b>: I vaguely remember one of you saying in a previous chat to start paying more attention to the polls after Turkey Day?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, we’ve mentioned Thanksgiving as a point when the polls start to get more interesting. Historically, that’s about when you begin to see much more widespread interest in the campaign.</p><p><b>harry</b>: We still had time for a Newt Gingrich boom and bust after Thanksgiving last election, and the Iowa caucuses are a month later in 2016 than they were in 2012. Anyway, the point is that Trump is vastly overvalued at 18.7 percent for someone who has such <a href=\"http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/jlhvnpecieuveys94g2ggg.png\">a low net favorability rating</a> among Republicans.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: re: Thanksgiving, I’m just saying that’s an inflection point at which the reliability of the polls begins to increase. Not saying that they instantly go from meaningless to meaningful. Here let me draw a graph.</p><p>[Nate gets up and draws on his office whiteboard.]</p><figure id=\"attachment_94854\"class=\"wp-caption alignnone \"style=\"max-width: 610px\"><img class=\"size-full wp-image-94854\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/img_0147-1.jpg?w=575\" alt=\"IMG_0147 (1)\"   /></figure><p><b>micah</b>: All right, next: Rick Santorum with a 0.2 percent chance &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: At 500-1? Sure. Buy a few shares.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I mean, I think I’m buying here. I think he’s probably closer to something like 200-1? Maybe even 100-1?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Win in Iowa and then who knows what happens?</p><p><b>micah</b>: Marco Rubio with a 38.6 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination &#8212; buy/sell/hold? According to Betfair, Rubio has the best chance of winning by a wide margin. (I’d sell at that price.)</p><p><b>harry</b>: I think I’m also selling. It’s not that he doesn’t have the best chance; he does. It’s that I would be closer to 30 percent or 33 percent. There are still far too many unknowns. Can he raise enough money? Can he convert high net favorability ratings into actual votes? Can he <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-establishment-inches-toward-marco-rubio/\">continue racking up endorsements</a>? He’s still behind Bush in the <a href=\"http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/\">endorsement race</a>.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m buying at 38.6 percent, although I don’t think I’m getting a great bargain.</p><p><b>micah</b>: You’re in the tank for Rubio.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: If I know you guys as well as I think I do, you’re going to be selling or holding a lot of the other candidates. Unless you’re <i>really</i> bullish on Jeb Bush or Trump or Ben Carson, it’s hard to get the numbers to add up to 100 percent unless you have Rubio in the 40 percent range or above. But more importantly, we have seen some signs of progress for Rubio. He’s one of only two Republicans to have received any endorsements in the past few weeks. He’s lined up some big super PAC backers. His favorability ratings remain strong.</p><p><b>micah</b>: <i>Some</i> signs, sure, but it’s all mostly potential still.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Right, lots of potential. Rubio is a hot commodity these days, but sometimes you get <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/\">berned</a>.</p><p><b>micah</b>: I think we’re all high on Rubio’s chances, but I think the hype has outpaced the reality at this point.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: The fact that there’s a meme out there that the hype has outpaced the reality makes it <i>less</i> likely he’s overvalued in the market.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Is that really a meme?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Yeah, what meme is that? Is it just in this office?</p><p><b>micah</b>: I just want to see a really good fundraising quarter or a bunch of endorsements (more than the five he’s gotten in the past week). Or for him to even shoot up in the polls, as meaningless as they are.</p><p>Anyway, Rand Paul at 0.6 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I was making the ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ motion.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Buying at 0.6 percent. I’ll go to 1.2 percent. I mean, who the heck knows? Maybe there’s a government scandal involving drones or something.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Yeah, I’d buy to like 3-4 percent.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I guess I’m a hold, and I’d be a sell if you forced me to pick. Even at that very cheap price. He’s doing miserably in the polls. And the GOP primary electorate has moved away from libertarianism toward Trumpism so far this cycle.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Right, but as you yourself have said, Nate, things can change. The electorate may be in a different place three months from now.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: To me, it’s a big assumption that Paul will even be around in three months. He’s risking damaging his brand and possibly inviting a primary challenge by staying in the race.</p><p><b>harry</b>: His main Democratic challenger for his Kentucky Senate seat has <a href=\"http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2015/11/edelen-wont-challenge-rand-after-auditor-loss-afp-responds-to-ayotte-211164\">already said</a> he’s not running.</p><p>I just think lightning could strike.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Lots of disagreement so far! Now we get to the big guns: George Pataki at 0.1 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Sell.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: SELL.</p><p><b>harry</b>: He’s pro-choice; he can’t win a GOP presidential primary.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: He was mayor of Peekskill, New York, which is a lovely town.</p><p><b>micah</b>: John Kasich at 2.3 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Buying. I’d even go double or triple that, potentially.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, that seems cheap on Kasich. Even if he’s overrated by Acela Republicans. To me, the flowchart is something like this: Rubio will get his trial run as the establishment front-runner. If he fails in that role, people will look at Kasich, Chris Christie, Bush a second time, maybe even Mitt Romney, etc.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Yeah, I gotta agree. Kasich came in very hot, and now he has cooled. But with a Christian conservative having a good shot in Iowa, New Hampshire becomes paramount. Maybe Kasich can break through there.</p><p><b>micah</b>: And Jeb’s struggles help Kasich as much as anyone, right? (save Rubio, maybe?)</p><p><b>harry</b>: Jeb’s struggles help Kasich, Rubio and Christie.</p><p><b>micah</b>: OK, Bobby Jindal, 0.6 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Again, I’m buying. <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bobby-jindal-could-still-win-iowa/\">Here’s why</a>. He has high net favorability ratings in Iowa, and with so many candidates, who knows?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m buying, I guess, although not as eagerly as Harry. Jindal has blown a couple of big chances in the debates. It’s not clear that he has the retail skills.</p><p><b>harry</b>: He’s 0.6 percent. If he were at 6 percent, then I’d be selling.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I mean, if you can’t out-debate Pataki, Santorum and Lindsey Graham, that’s sort of the politics version of hitting below the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mendoza_Line\">Mendoza Line</a>.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Mike Huckabee at 0.8 percent?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Buying. Same reasons as with Jindal, and Huckabee once won 20 percent of the national primary vote. Plus, Huckabee can be a very good debater.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I guess I’m buying. But I just want to re-emphasize that if someone “should” be at (say) 1.5 percent instead of 0.8 percent, they’re a solid buy but still aren’t going to shift the overall odds very much.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Lindsey Graham &#8212; 0.3 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’m selling.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m not buying.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Does that mean you’re holding?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: It’s a shold for me.</p><p><b>micah</b>: I’m sholding on the word “shold.&#8221;</p><p>Carly Fiorina with a 1.2 percent chance &#8212; buy/sell/shold?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Buy.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Buying too.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Up to?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Uhhh, 3 percent maybe? She clearly wasn’t able to sustain very much momentum after her sterling performances in the debates. And it’s not clear how interested she is in building out a real campaign architecture. Still, her favorability ratings are fairly good, and she’s a plausible (not saying likely) establishment vs. outsider compromise choice.</p><p>Let me also note that I would have assigned only a 3 percent chance to my being able to eat this bowl of ramen without spilling on myself, and I just pulled that off. So sometimes the long shot comes through.</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’m with Nate on this. I’m not sure there is much to add. I will say Fiorina has gotten a few endorsements. So it’s not a totally lost cause.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Ted Cruz with a 10.3 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Holding, I think. He’s quite conservative, yes, but there’s <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-ted-cruz-ted-cruz/\">room for him</a> given the divided field and his high favorability ratings</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Holding. He was a bargain a few weeks ago, but he’s been bid up quite a bit since.</p><p>I think there’s a pretty good chance that Cruz has an influence on the race at some point and could emerge as the leading “insurgent” alternative. But having an influence on the race is not the same thing as winning it.</p><p>Also on Cruz, I suspect his Harvard-debate-team style is going to rub a few voters the wrong way. It’s not fatal by any means, but it’s one thing working against him. And it’s interesting that he didn’t move up in the polls as much as some people expected after the previous debate.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Of course, Rubio didn’t really move up much either.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Chris Christie at 3.1 percent?</p><p><b>harry</b>: If I don’t buy after <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chris-christie-undercard-debater-could-thrive-in-gop-primary-chaos/\">the piece</a> I just wrote, I should be put out to pasture.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I’m a buy, but a weak buy. I can see Harry’s case for Christie. But fundamentally, he still has a LOT of problems &#8212; too moderate, has lost his luster with independent voters, not seen as a party guy, and the whiff of vetting issues.</p><p>Like Cruz, he’s a guy who could have a surge at some point but have it prove to be unsustainable.</p><p>With that said, having the stage sort of to himself in the JV debate is an opportunity.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Yes. It’s a buy, but not a strong buy.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Ben Carson 6.5 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: Selling.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: If past patterns are any indication, he’s about to surge to 42 percent in the polls.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Because of the <a href=\"http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/11/09/donald-trump-has-little-sympathy-for-ben-carsons-complaints-about-media/\">fracas</a> over alleged misrepresentations in his life story?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Yeah, after being ganged up on by the media.</p><p><b>micah</b>: You think there’s a lot of smoke but no fire?</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: I think whoever set the campfire did so sloppily. So maybe there are a few embers, but it looks bad. (This metaphor is rapidly going to hell.)</p><p>I suppose I don’t think there should be such a big spread between Trump’s chances and Carson’s chances at Betfair.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Reminder: Even before this whole thing with <a href=\"http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ben-carsons-unusual-theory-about-pyramids/\">pyramids</a> and fires and whatever it is y’all are getting at, Carson had little shot at winning the nomination. Neither does Trump.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: Anyway, I’m a shold on Carson.</p><p><b>micah</b>: Last but not least, Jeb Bush at 9.6 percent &#8212; buy/sell/hold?</p><p><b>harry</b>: I’m buying. I know, I know &#8212; how could I buy on the man whose debate performances remind me most of the Mets’ World Series defense. But he’s still got the most endorsements. He still has a lot of super PAC cash. So I’d go higher than 9.6 percent. Not much higher, but higher. Let it be known, however, that his chances have dropped at least in half over the last two months.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: When I was putting together my subjective odds, I had him at 9 percent. So that’s a hold, I guess. Bush has gotten barely any endorsements since Labor Day. They’re mostly a relic of an earlier period and the promise his campaign failed to live up to.</p><p><b>harry</b>: Only Rubio has picked up the slack … and not by that much. At least as of yet.</p><p><b>natesilver</b>: At the pace he’s been on recently, Rubio will surpass Bush within a week or two. But here’s the other thing. Republicans <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/\">don’t have a good reason</a> to choose Bush. His fundamentals aren’t that strong. He’s not with them ideologically, and his electability credentials are meh.</p><p><b>harry</b>: It comes down to New Hampshire.</p><p><b>micah</b>: All right, to close us out here, give me all your subjective odds.</p><p>Here are mine:</p><p>Jeb Bush &#8212; 10 percent</p><p>Ben Carson &#8212; 5 percent</p><p>Chris Christie &#8212; 6 percent</p><p>Ted Cruz &#8212; 14 percent</p><p>Carly Fiorina &#8212; 5 percent</p><p>Lindsey Graham &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Mike Huckabee &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Bobby Jindal &#8212; 4 percent</p><p>John Kasich &#8212; 10 percent</p><p>George Pataki &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Rand Paul &#8212; 3 percent</p><p>Marco Rubio &#8212; 30 percent</p><p>Rick Santorum &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Donald Trump &#8212; 5 percent</p><p>Other &#8212; 4 percent</p><p><b>natesilver</b>:</p><p>Bush &#8212; 9 percent</p><p>Carson &#8212; 6 percent</p><p>Christie &#8212; 5 percent</p><p>Cruz &#8212; 10 percent</p><p>Fiorina &#8212; 3 percent</p><p>Graham &#8212; &lt;1 percent</p><p>Huckabee &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Jindal &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Kasich &#8212; 8 percent</p><p>Pataki &#8212; &lt;1 percent</p><p>Paul &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Rubio &#8212; 45 percent</p><p>Santorum &#8212; 1 percent</p><p>Trump &#8212; 6 percent</p><p>Other &#8212; 4 percent</p><p><b>harry</b>:</p><p>Bush &#8212; 13 percent</p><p>Carson &#8212; 4 percent</p><p>Christie &#8212; 6 percent</p><p>Cruz &#8212; 10.3 percent</p><p>Fiorina &#8212; 5 percent</p><p>Graham &#8212; 0.1 percent</p><p>Huckabee &#8212; 3 percent</p><p>Jindal &#8212; 2 percent</p><p>Kasich &#8212; 8 percent</p><p>Pataki &#8212; 0 percent</p><p>Paul &#8212; 1.2 percent</p><p>Rubio &#8212; 33 percent</p><p>Santorum &#8212; 1.2 percent</p><p>Trump &#8212; 5 percent</p><p>Other &#8212; 8.2 percent</p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=94850&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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Day\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"link\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:107:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-have-almost-no-idea-what-the-economy-will-look-like-on-election-day/\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"comments\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:115:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-have-almost-no-idea-what-the-economy-will-look-like-on-election-day/#respond\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:7:\"pubDate\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:31:\"Thu, 05 Nov 2015 21:09:02 +0000\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:8:\"category\";a:4:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:13:\"2016 Election\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Predictions\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"The Economy\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:19:\"The Great Recession\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:4:\"guid\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:58:\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/?post_type=fte_features&p=94573\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:1:{s:0:\"\";a:1:{s:11:\"isPermaLink\";s:5:\"false\";}}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}s:11:\"description\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:534:\"There’s almost exactly one year to go until Election Day 2016. But I want to wind the clock back eight years, to Nov. 5, 2007. What were the headlines that day? According to the news aggregator Memeorandum, the most talked-about national stories were the confirmation of Michael Mukasey as attorney general and the increasing unrest [&#8230;]<img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=94573&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" />\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:32:\"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/\";a:1:{s:7:\"creator\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:11:\"Nate Silver\";s:7:\"attribs\";a:0:{}s:8:\"xml_base\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"xml_base_explicit\";b:0;s:8:\"xml_lang\";s:0:\"\";}}}s:40:\"http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/\";a:1:{s:7:\"encoded\";a:1:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"data\";s:4155:\"<p>There’s almost exactly one year to go until Election Day 2016. But I want to wind the clock back eight years, to Nov. 5, 2007.</p><p>What were the headlines that day? According to the news aggregator <a href=\"http://www.memeorandum.com/071105/h1245\">Memeorandum</a>, the most talked-about national stories were the confirmation of Michael Mukasey as attorney general and the increasing unrest in Pakistan. There was also the typical litany of campaign stories, particularly about the growing rivalry between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, who were both serving in the U.S. Senate and running for the Democratic presidential nomination.</p><p>But there was very little about the economy, even though it was about to become the focal point of the campaign. The Dow Jones industrial average, for instance, was doing fine, having wobbled a bit from its October highs but still having risen by about 13 percent year over year.</p><figure id=\"attachment_94586\"class=\"wp-caption alignleft \"style=\"max-width: 305px\"><img class=\"wp-image-94586\" src=\"https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-datalab-temp-11.png?w=305&#038;h=475\" alt=\"silver-datalab-temp-1\" width=\"305\" height=\"475\" /></figure><p>Just one month later, however, the <a href=\"http://www.nber.org/cycles.html\">economy would be in recession</a><a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"41\" href=\"#fn-41\"><sup id=\"ss-41\">41</sup></a> &#8212; indeed, in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression as part of a global financial crisis whose aftereffects are still being felt today.</p><p>Could we find ourselves in equally dire straits by this time next year &#8212; in the midst of a severe economic crisis that few people saw coming?</p><p>Well, maybe. There <i>were</i> some <a href=\"https://www.stlouisfed.org/financial-crisis/full-timeline\">warning signs</a> by November 2007; the <a href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/05/business/05place.html?_r=0\">subprime mortgage sector was already in distress</a>, and there were some <a href=\"http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Projects/BPEA/Fall-2008/2008b_bpea_hatzius.PDF\">voices in the wilderness</a> suggesting that it could have dire consequences for the economy. But that wasn’t the consensus view of policymakers or forecasters. Instead, the <a href=\"http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&amp;r=20\">forecasting survey</a> put out by The Wall Street Journal in November 2007 called for slower-than-usual growth but assigned only a 1 in 3 chance of a recession.<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"42\" href=\"#fn-42\"><sup id=\"ss-42\">42</sup></a></p><p>Indeed, economists have shown very little ability to forecast the direction of the economy more than six months in advance. As I wrote in my <a href=\"http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B007V65R54/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?ie=UTF8&amp;btkr=1\">book</a>, the historical margin of error associated with GDP forecasts made a year ahead<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"43\" href=\"#fn-43\"><sup id=\"ss-43\">43</sup></a> is plus-or-minus a whopping 4.6 percentage points. By this time next year, the economy could be back in recession &#8212; or in the midst of a <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morning_in_America\">“Morning in America”</a> resurgence.</p><p>And because the economy is <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/amid-volatile-polling-keep-an-eye-on-election-fundamentals/\">so important to presidential campaigns</a>,<a class=\"footnote-link\" data-expandable=\"entry-footnotes\" data-footnote-id=\"44\" href=\"#fn-44\"><sup id=\"ss-44\">44</sup></a> events in China or Greece or the <a href=\"http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-future-of-the-u-s-oil-boom-is-anyones-guess/\">American oil boom</a>, which few political observers are paying much attention to today, could prove to be the real “game changers” in the election.</p><img alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fivethirtyeight.com&#038;blog=64146350&#038;post=94573&#038;subd=espnfivethirtyeight&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" 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class=\"rss-widget\"><ul><li><a class=\'rsswidget\' href=\'https://wordpress.org/news/2016/12/vaughan/\'>WordPress 4.7 “Vaughan”</a> <span class=\"rss-date\">December 6, 2016</span><div class=\"rssSummary\">Version 4.7 of WordPress, named “Vaughan” in honor of legendary jazz vocalist Sarah &quot;Sassy&quot; Vaughan, is available for download or update in your WordPress dashboard. 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