This election, however, Romney may have to compete with Donald Trump.

via <a href="http://www.tnr.com/article/the-permanent-campaign/87073/donald-trump-mitt-romney-republican-election">The GOP Establishment’s Futile Battle Against Donald Trump. | The New Republic</a>.

I'm betting Trump doesn't run or is out after Iowa.  Despite all the crackpots in the Republican party, they never nominated one.   Republican primary voters tend to vote for a serious candidate like McCain in 2008, Bush in 2000, Dole in 1996, Bush in 1988, etc.